Ask a Brit thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How likely is it that a strong showing by the Liberal Demorats will deny Labour an outright majority,

The LibDems are only competative against Labour in a handful of seats. And won't win in most of those. So no.

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Extremely unlikely. Most of the Labour movement distrust the LibDems: on the one hand because the Liberals double crossed them in the '70's, and on the other because of the SDP split.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The LibDems are only competative against Labour in a handful of seats. And won't win in most of those. So no.

What are the odds that a combination of weak Labour and strong every other party showing results in no one getting a majority of the seats? And if Labour and the Liberals get together over 50%, they wouldn't form a coalition? 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What are the odds that a combination of weak Labour and strong every other party showing results in no one getting a majority of the seats?

There'd need to be some strange turnout patterns. Could happen, but not all that likely

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You mean in seats, right? No. They probably wouldn't, although weird things can happen if there's a hung parliament.

[Silent Hunter]

Aye.

There's always the possibility of a 'Feb 1974' scenario. If Labour get between 307 and 323 seats, a Con-Lib coalition would still NOT give them a majority.

If it was a hung parliament, I'd expect another election within a year.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

How would you rate the main 3 parties: Labour, Conservative, and the Liberals in terms of the political compass? I've seen some sites that indicate almost no difference between Labour and Conservatives, and that the Liberals are definitely more liberal, but are still right of center.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

How well are the various nationalist parties likely to do? (BNP, PC, SNP, UKIP) and which of the main parties do they weaken the most?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How well are the various nationalist parties likely to do? (BNP, PC, SNP, UKIP) and which of the main parties do they weaken the most?

BNP are extremely unlikely to win any seats but they have a good chance of getting second place in a couple of seats, mostly in the old textile belt in West Yorks, but maybe a few in white flight suburbs. They tend to take most of their votes from lower middle class "Essex Man" types and what's left of the old working class Tory bloc (the latter is especially the case in Yorkshire).

Plaid might have a fairly good election, they might also have a nightmare; it all depends on turnout. They do best in areas that are majority Welsh speaking (ie: rural West Wales) although, despite popular belief in England, they don't monopolise the area *at all* and of their four seats only one is actually safe.
In the long run they've more or less taken over the old rural Liberal vote in West Wales.

SNP (like Plaid) have been having a rough time of it lately, but if turnout is low they could still do fairly well. They tend to do best in Northeast Scotland (because of their position on North Sea Oil) and isolated pockets in the rest of Scotland. In the long run they've mainly taken ex-Tory areas (northeast Scotland used to be a formidable Tory fortress) but they also do well in a few traditionally Labour areas in the central belt... but have never won a seat there except in by-elections.

UKIP have faded away somewhat from the Euro elections (when they knocked the LibDems into third place) and the Hartlepool by-election (when they knocked the Tories into fourth place) and have been hurt by the loss of ex-Labour M.P, ex-Chatshow host, professional bigot and all round egomaniac, Robert Kilroy-Silk (who leads his own party. See below) but they are still much stronger than they were in 2001 and could stop the Tories from regaining several seats.
They do best in the West Country (especially rural Devon) and retirement resorts on the south and east coasts (especially Frinton). In these cases they take mostly from the Tories, although in parts of the West Country they actually take from the LibDems (the most pro-European party...). In the Euro elections they did very well in the East Midlands, especially in socially conservative Labour areas, but this seems to have had more to do with Kilroy-Silk than anything else and they'll do badly there.

Veritas is Kilroy-Silk's personality cult party. He's standing in Erewash (middle class Derby suburbia) and no-one's really sure how well he'll do (10% is the usual guess). They are standing in other seats. They will lose their deposits in those seats.

Respect is George Galloway's personality cult party and an unholy alliance of Trots and Islamic Fundamentalists (seriously). He's standing against a half black half Jewish Labour M.P in Bethnal Green & Bow (an East End seat with a large Bangladeshi population) and has a longshot at winning due to race politics and anti-sem[censored to avoid being sued for libel]ism. They might do fairly well in some other seats with large Muslim populations, especially Birmingham Sparkbrook & Small Heath, where the local LibDems are furious at them for probably killing the best LibDem chance to pick that seat up ever.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

How much is this deposit you speak of and how well does a party have to do to avoid losing it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How much is this deposit you speak of and how well does a party have to do to avoid losing it?

A deposit is £500 last time I checked. You have to pay that to get your name on the ballot paper. If you win over 5% (used to be 12.5%) you get the money back, if you don't you don't.

[MissCatholic]

Is it true that Blairs support of Bush is the thing that hurts him the most

[Silent Hunter]

Is it true that Blairs support of Bush is the thing that hurts him the most

I'm not sure. It's hurt him, but only about 10% of the electorate actually will base their vote on Iraq.

[MaC]

I have some questions

1.First off, not a question, but I'd like to thank Britain for Led Zeppelin, Black Sabbath, and popularising Jimi Hendrix.

2.What's with British comedy?  It doesn't make sense.  About the funniest thing I've seen is Mr. Bean, but a lot of it is sight gags and slapstick.

3.Why are people with British accents regarded as sounding smarter than Americans?  It's a cultural implication that astounds me as to why people see it as smarter, or more charming.

4.Who's gonna be the next James Bond, now that Pierce Brosnan has quit?

[JohnFKennedy]

I have some questions

1.First off, not a question, but I'd like to thank Britain for Led Zeppelin, Black Sabbath, and popularising Jimi Hendrix.

2.What's with British comedy?  It doesn't make sense.  About the funniest thing I've seen is Mr. Bean, but a lot of it is sight gags and slapstick.

3.Why are people with British accents regarded as sounding smarter than Americans?  It's a cultural implication that astounds me as to why people see it as smarter, or more charming.

4.Who's gonna be the next James Bond, now that Pierce Brosnan has quit?

2. British comedy rocks man, watch Blackadder or Monty Python, they are two shining examples of quality British humour.

3. Because we are smarter .  Depends what you mean by a British accent, there are regional differences, the people with the stereotypical British accent are probably those who are rather eloquent in which case they probably are quite smart.

4. I have heard Clive Owen has been tipped. He was in the King Arthur movie I think and also the film Closer, that was a great film.

[Bono]

4. I have heard Clive Owen has been tipped. He was in the King Arthur movie I think and also the film Closer, that was a great film.

How can any self respecting actor accept the part of James Bond.

[Gabu]

4. I have heard Clive Owen has been tipped. He was in the King Arthur movie I think and also the film Closer, that was a great film.

How can any self respecting actor accept the part of James Bond.

How can any self-respecting moviegoer not enjoy James Bond?

[minionofmidas]

4. I have heard Clive Owen has been tipped. He was in the King Arthur movie I think and also the film Closer, that was a great film.

How can any self respecting actor accept the part of James Bond.

They can't, and post-Sean Connery, none has. Understandably.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's a "British accent"? Never heard of it myself. Get some people from Cornwall, Norfolk, County Durham, Liverpool, Birmingham (or even better: Dudley), Wigan, Huddersfield, East London, Surrey and Nottingham into the same room and you'll see what I mean...

[minionofmidas]

(Obviously it's not going to happen, but:) What percentage of the Electorate is hoping, however silently, for the following result:
Labour Majority Only Slightly Reduced
LD gain Sedgefield

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(Obviously it's not going to happen, but:) What percentage of the Electorate is hoping, however silently, for the following result:
Labour Majority Only Slightly Reduced
LD gain Sedgefield

First one... don't know. About a quarter perhaps? Most people (including me) seem to want a majority somewhere between 80 and 40.

Second one... probably a majority of people in Crouch End and similer elitist havens.
Interestingly, Sedgefield is one of the very worst seats for the LibDems in the entire country (although not as bad as nearby Middlesbrough).

[minionofmidas]

No, I meant the two together.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, I meant the two together.

5% maybe... although mostly concentrated in (say) Hampstead rather than Crouch End.

[DanielX]

What's up with the TV fees? Every TV owner has to pay a substantial fee to the BBC, and I've heard stories about non-TV owners being harrassed for not paying the fee.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The current 'Father of the House', as I understand it, is Tim Dalyell, who is retiring.

Yep. Mad Tam (M.P for East Lothian/Linlithgow since a by-election in either '62 or '63, I forget the exact year) is finally retiring, much to the relief of Britain's Jewish community.

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Prestiege mostly... and they're supposed to be nice to new M.P's... but they do have one power: presiding over the election of a new Speaker.

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No, Alan Williams (Labour M.P for Swansea West since 1964) is (unless no-one votes on the council estates in his constituency, which won't happen).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's up with the TV fees? Every TV owner has to pay a substantial fee to the BBC, and I've heard stories about non-TV owners being harrassed for not paying the fee.

The BBC is a state-owned broadcasting company and is supposed to produce quality programming. It's not allowed to use commericial advertising to fund itself so the Government let's it charge a license fee (which, contrary to to what you've been told, is pretty small) to all households that have a TV that picks up BBC stations (ie: all of them).

[minionofmidas]

Same thing here ... except they do have commercial ads anyways ... but only before 8 pm ... whoever came up with that rule? ... and if you own no TV but do own a radio, you have to pay a quarter of the full fee, while if you own a TV but no radio you pay the full fee. Strange but true. Also, if you're poor enough you're excused.