How has your county voted in previous presidential elections?

[hcallega]

Baltimore County
2012: Barack Obama (57%)
2008: Barack Obama (56%)
2004: John Kerry (52%)
2000: Al Gore (53%)
1996: Bill Clinton (46%)
1992: Bill Clinton (44%)
1988: George Bush (57%)
1984: Reagan (61%)
1980: Reagan (47%)
1976: Ford (55%)
1972: Nixon (70%)
1968: Nixon (50%)
1964: Johnson (60%)
1960: Nixon (50%)


Explanation: Today, Baltimore County is a diverse county with a number of different, and fairly distinct, regions. It surrounds Baltimore City and its politics have often reflected changes in the city's demographics and population. Prior the 1950s, the County was very much a rural constituency, with the exception of the Bethlehem Steel factory in Sparrow's Point (just southeast of the city). This changed rapidly after World War Two with the rise of sub-urbanization. Many former city-dwellers (like my grandfather) moved into stand-alone homes in the county, and began to change its politics.

The county is something of  microcosm for America as a whole. White working class towns in the Southeast (Dundalk, Essex, Middle River) and the Southwest (Arbutus, Baltimore Highlands) used to provide the backbone of the Democratic coalition, but have trended sharply Republican in recent years (minus Romney in 2012, who performed very poorly in many of these communities). As an example, Southeast Baltimore County was represented by a Democratic State Senator, three Democratic delegates, and a Democratic County Councilman heading into the 2014 elections. Now every one of those seats is held by a conservative Republican. Meanwhile, Western Baltimore County is the Democratic base in the county. It is a combination of African-American families who have moved out of the city along Reisterstown Road, and largely Jewish communities in the Pikesville area who have always been traditionally Democratic. Northern Baltimore county is still largely rural and conservative, and votes Republican by wide margins. The key swing area, which has shifted from being traditionally Republican to leaning Democrat, are the suburbs just north and north-east of the city: Towson, Parkville, Overlea. These areas determine who wins the county, and are indicative of who wins the state (i.e. if a Democrat can't carry Towson, he/she is struggling to win over moderate suburbanites and is probably going to lose the election). Gov. Hogan swept them in 2014, while O'Malley won them in 2010. They voted heavily for Bush (1988), but began to swing Dem in the 1990s and haven't looked back in national elections.

As for 2016: I imagine Clinton will win Baltimore County by a similar margin as Obama.