OH-Quinnipiac: Gov. Kasich+12 (user search)
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  OH-Quinnipiac: Gov. Kasich+12 (search mode)
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Author Topic: OH-Quinnipiac: Gov. Kasich+12  (Read 2587 times)
Flake
Flo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,688
United States


« on: July 30, 2014, 06:51:44 AM »

New Poll: Ohio Governor by Quinnipiac University on 2014-07-28

Summary: D: 36%, R: 48%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Don't enter this. Quinnipiac is the only pollster who believes this is a double digit race and as usual, Kasich's lead, job approval and lead among women is laughable. Their polls were so off in 2010's race and they're not even close this time, either. If anything, the internal is more on track with where this race is at with FitzGerald remaining competitive.

lolwhat? Quinnipiac has been a great Ohio pollster.
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Flake
Flo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,688
United States


« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2014, 07:25:16 AM »

Don't enter this. Quinnipiac is the only pollster who believes this is a double digit race and as usual, Kasich's lead, job approval and lead among women is laughable. Their polls were so off in 2010's race and they're not even close this time, either. If anything, the internal is more on track with where this race is at with FitzGerald remaining competitive.

Of course it will be entered.

Your claim that Quinnipiac was "so off" in 2010 is completely wrong (they said Kasich+1, Kasich won by 2) and said Portman+19 (Portman won by 17):

Quote
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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1530

...

It seems very hard for Fitzgerald to come anywhere close to winning, considering:

* Kasich has a 55-30 approval rating
* By 60-40 voters think OH is on the right track
* FitzGerald's low name recognition
By "so off" I was referring to their set of late polls from 2010 that had Kasich with sizable, double digits leads.

Addressing those stared bulletpoints, Kasich's approval is not realistically at 55%. PPP's last non-partisan poll had him at 42-47 disapprove and other polls like SurveyUSA and Magellan have backed that up that Kasich's approval is only in the 40s. Most Ohioans actually believe that Ohio is on the wrong track, so Quinnipiac is wrong again. Quinnipiac can look at unemployment numbers all they want, but Ohioans are leaving the work force in high numbers, we're ranked very low in job creation and Ohioans are aware the state is going in the wrong direction. And as I said above, FitzGerald's name rec was at about 50% before the ad hit the air. Name rec isn't as big of a problem anymore as it was earlier this year and late last year.

Internals are usually only off by a few points and PPP's OH-Dem poll only had Kasich leading by 1 (which means factoring in the bias, he's up 3-5), and Quinnipiac isn't even close to that in this poll.

Yeah, and every poll agreed with them.

Could you show me the links to these polls that say Ohio is on the wrong track?
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