OH-Quinnipiac: Gov. Kasich+12 (user search)
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  OH-Quinnipiac: Gov. Kasich+12 (search mode)
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Author Topic: OH-Quinnipiac: Gov. Kasich+12  (Read 2591 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« on: July 30, 2014, 05:07:13 AM »

48% Kasich (R)
36% FitzGerald (D)

The traditional gender gap exists as men back the Republican 53 - 31 percent, while women are divided, with 43 percent for Gov. Kasich and 41 percent for FitzGerald.

Kasich leads 92 - 2 percent among Republicans and 47 - 28 percent among independent voters, while Democrats go to FitzGerald 78 - 9 percent.

Ohio voters approve 55 - 31 percent of the job Kasich is doing, virtually unchanged from his all-time high of 56 - 33 percent May 14. Voters say 50 - 37 percent that he deserves reelection, compared to 53 - 37 percent in May.

Kasich gets a 46 - 30 percent favorability rating, little changed from May.

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From July 24 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,366 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2065
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2014, 06:13:46 AM »

They couldn't have waited another week or so until the ad is finished airing in the Cleveland and Columbus media markets? Quinnipiac seriously doesn't ever give FitzGerald enough credit. His campaign schedule is much more tedious than Kasich's and his last unknown figures I saw were at around 50%, not 67%. He has been getting his name out there through this ad, fundraisers and a lot of visits all around the state, contrary to Quinnipiac's belief that "no one knows him."

Don't enter this. Quinnipiac is the only pollster who believes this is a double digit race and as usual, Kasich's lead, job approval and lead among women is laughable. Their polls were so off in 2010's race and they're not even close this time, either. If anything, the internal is more on track with where this race is at with FitzGerald remaining competitive.

Pollsters have schedules. They are certainly not delaying a poll, just because some random candidate has not aired his ads yet ... That would make no sense.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2014, 06:22:25 AM »

Don't enter this. Quinnipiac is the only pollster who believes this is a double digit race and as usual, Kasich's lead, job approval and lead among women is laughable. Their polls were so off in 2010's race and they're not even close this time, either. If anything, the internal is more on track with where this race is at with FitzGerald remaining competitive.

Of course it will be entered.

Your claim that Quinnipiac was "so off" in 2010 is completely wrong (they said Kasich+1, Kasich won by 2) and said Portman+19 (Portman won by 17):

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1530

...

It seems very hard for Fitzgerald to come anywhere close to winning, considering:

* Kasich has a 55-30 approval rating
* By 60-40 voters think OH is on the right track
* FitzGerald's low name recognition
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