^ Cohn says the composition of the electorate will likely be similar to 2008.
30% is possible.
2012 seems a bit more likely to me.
Regardless, this is decent news for Perdue given that he just needs to keep Nunn under 50.
It was 30% in both 2008
and 2012.
I agree that lower black turnout than 2008 is more likely. 30% is definitely possible, but it's worth noting that Chambliss still beat back Martin in November '08 by three points with that number, and if a runoff happens this election, turnout will surely nosedive, largely to the benefit of Perdue.
Just keep in mind that "low" black turnout (using 2010 as the reference point) is 28%. Also, there will be a greater number of non-whites who aren't black who vote in this election than in 2008.
