NC-PPP: Hagan expands lead, but Haugh at 8%

[sawx]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_722925.pdf

Hagan 41
Tillis 34
Haugh 8

Not quite sure what to think, considering Haugh's taking so much of the vote away. I think Hagan clearly has a slight edge now, but Haugh can't be getting 8% of the vote yet.

[Tender Branson]

You forgot to mention an important thing:

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If the Lib dude drops towards election day, the race is getting close.

[OkThen]

Hagan's approval stuck around 40/50 approve/disapprove is quite worrisome but then again Tillis' favorability rating is an abysmal 25/47. It's not as if Tillis is still very unknown.

[The Daily Beagle]

Could turn out like Virginia did last year. The Democrat was kinda a douche but the Republican was unreasonable.  The libertarian took like 5% and the Democrat won by a narrower than expected plurality.

[Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon]

This is largely because the legislature is in session. Once it goes home the Hagan lead will get smaller and might go away entirely.

[Free Bird]

This is largely because the legislature is in session. Once it goes home the Hagan lead will get smaller and might go away entirely.

This is pretty much it. Wouldn't the people WANT to get Tillis out of the state house?

[SWE]

Perhaps if her lead continues to expand, I can move this seat to Lean D and finally  say she has the same chance of winning as Shaheen.

[OkThen]

This is largely because the legislature is in session. Once it goes home the Hagan lead will get smaller and might go away entirely.

This is pretty much it. Wouldn't the people WANT to get Tillis out of the state house?

What? I don't understand this logic at all...

[IceSpear]

Could turn out like Virginia did last year. The Democrat was kinda a douche but the Republican was unreasonable.  The libertarian took like 5% and the Democrat won by a narrower than expected plurality.

As far as I can tell, NC doesn't really dislike Hagan, they just don't like that she voted for almost all of Obama's agenda. McAuliffe was unlikable and sleazy.

[Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon]

This is largely because the legislature is in session. Once it goes home the Hagan lead will get smaller and might go away entirely.

This is pretty much it. Wouldn't the people WANT to get Tillis out of the state house?

What? I don't understand this logic at all...

Hagan started out with a high single digit to double digit lead in polls in 2013, then when the 2013 legislative session ended, her leads immediately began to decrease, even before the shutdown/obamacare rollout - showing that the legislature being in session (of which Tillis is the speaker) had inflated Hagan's lead. There's a valid question of whether this will happen again this year, and I think it will, though I'm not sure to what extent.

[Flake]

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-07-20

Summary: D: 41%, R: 34%, I: 8%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Miles]

This is largely because the legislature is in session. Once it goes home the Hagan lead will get smaller and might go away entirely.

This is pretty much it. Wouldn't the people WANT to get Tillis out of the state house?

He's already giving up his seat to run for Senate in the first place...

[God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams]

Glorious news!

[Miles]

I actually surprised at how poorly Hagan is performing around Charlotte. She's trailing 32/52 (in the two-way maychup) in the 704 code. In 2012, Dalton was trailing 39/51 against McCrory there. Tillis doesn't really have any of the bipastisan goodwill in the area McCrory had and he's from the wrong part of Meckleburg County.

Hagan is overperformong in the Triangle, which is bringing her up overall.

[Landon1993]

It is odd she would be doing so poorly around Charlotte. If that's how it goes on election nights, my guess is she loses affluent voters handily.

[Miles]

The Charlotte area code (704) is actually R-leaning to start out with; Hagan just needs to bring Tillis' margin there down. The area was 51/48 McCain in 2008, my guess for 2012 would be something like 52/46 Romney.

Charlotte is much like Indianapolis or Columbus, as its a strongly D city surrounded by suburban R counties. They outweigh Mecklenburg County to skew the area code towards the Republicans.  

One positive for Hagan now is that she's performing well in the Triangle, which usually has higher turnout rates vis-a-vis Greater Charlotte.