NC-PPP: Hagan expands lead, but Haugh at 8%

[Miles]

This is largely because the legislature is in session. Once it goes home the Hagan lead will get smaller and might go away entirely.

This is pretty much it. Wouldn't the people WANT to get Tillis out of the state house?

He's already giving up his seat to run for Senate in the first place...

[Miles]

I actually surprised at how poorly Hagan is performing around Charlotte. She's trailing 32/52 (in the two-way maychup) in the 704 code. In 2012, Dalton was trailing 39/51 against McCrory there. Tillis doesn't really have any of the bipastisan goodwill in the area McCrory had and he's from the wrong part of Meckleburg County.

Hagan is overperformong in the Triangle, which is bringing her up overall.

[Miles]

The Charlotte area code (704) is actually R-leaning to start out with; Hagan just needs to bring Tillis' margin there down. The area was 51/48 McCain in 2008, my guess for 2012 would be something like 52/46 Romney.

Charlotte is much like Indianapolis or Columbus, as its a strongly D city surrounded by suburban R counties. They outweigh Mecklenburg County to skew the area code towards the Republicans.  

One positive for Hagan now is that she's performing well in the Triangle, which usually has higher turnout rates vis-a-vis Greater Charlotte.