This is largely because the legislature is in session. Once it goes home the Hagan lead will get smaller and might go away entirely.
This is pretty much it. Wouldn't the people WANT to get Tillis out of the state house?
What? I don't understand this logic at all...
Hagan started out with a high single digit to double digit lead in polls in 2013, then when the 2013 legislative session ended, her leads immediately began to decrease, even before the shutdown/obamacare rollout - showing that the legislature being in session (of which Tillis is the speaker) had inflated Hagan's lead. There's a valid question of whether this will happen again this year, and I think it will, though I'm not sure to what extent.