IL-We Ask America: Rauner (R) up 12

[Senator Cris]

Rauner (R) 51%
Quinn (D) 39%

The poll of 940 likely voters was taken July 8th and has a margin of error of ±3.2 percent. 30 percent of the calls were made to mobile phones.

http://www.rebootillinois.com/2014/07/14/editors-picks/richmiller/poll-rauners-riches-quinns-anti-violence-fiasco-cancel-2014-illinois-governors-race/20493/?utm_medium=social&utm_content=@rebootIllinois&utm_source=twitter

[TX Conservative Dem]

How accurate is that poll in previous IL gubernatorial elections ?

[free my dawg]

How accurate is that poll in previous IL gubernatorial elections ?

Not very. Their last poll had Brady up by 10 and their house polling in 2012 was pretty R-biased too.

[SamInTheSouth]

Quinn is the Democrat's Corbett this year.  He's finished. 

[IceSpear]

This race has been ridiculously underpolled. The last non We Ask America poll was in early April.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

dominating

[sg0508]

Just wait until the last 10% or so "come home" in Cook. 

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The numbers in this poll are all over the place.

Though I support Rauner, nothing seems very consistent here. For example, Rauner is outperforming Kirk in suburban Cook by 18 percentage points (winning 50-41 instead of Kirk losing by 9), and the gender gap is a whopping 14%. Those numbers are pretty crazy to me, even though I would like to believe that Rauner is outperforming Kirk in Chicago by 1% (it's a plausible number if Rauner will win, but the rest of the data makes me take this with a grain of salt). The overall result is also fairly plausible, but again, the rest of the data makes me wonder.


Actually, polling in Illinois so far this year has resulted in some really bizarre numbers (like when one pollster forgot to mention Rauner and Quinn's party affiliations and showed Rauner winning 57% of the black vote. They threw it out, redid it while mentioning party IDs, and got more "believable" numbers).


Is Illinois just a difficult state to poll? I want to see more.

[muon2]

This race has been ridiculously underpolled. The last non We Ask America poll was in early April.

Pollsters aren't prone to work for free.

There aren't many media groups that want to pay for regular polls here in IL. There will be some polls from the major outlets in the fall during the campaign, but the rest will be smaller buys or internal polling. When media outlets pay for polling they tend to have a long term relationship with a single firm.

That brings in WAA which is native to IL and has moved beyond its original roots as an arm of the manufacturers association. Capitol Fax is the most respected political blog in the state and is the only media outlet currently engaged in regular polling. It uses WAA as the pollster of choice, in part due to the in-state experience. Cap Fax dumped on many of the national pollsters who refused to poll the independent Cohen four years ago for Gov, and that resulted in Brady boosted by the other "not Quinn" votes. Like any good business, WAA will work with their client to ask the questions the client wants. It's worth noting that the Chicago Sun Times, the more left-leaning of the two major newspapers in the city, also now uses WAA for its polling.

[Mr. Illini]

PPP please do this race. I really don't buy the WAA breakdowns at all so far.

[Tender Branson]

Quinn's goose is pretty much cooked.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

One of Rauner's best assets is a Democratic supermajority in the legislature. His only real role in the state will be to veto the absurd and to help shape the political debate.

[muon2]

PPP please do this race. I really don't buy the WAA breakdowns at all so far.

It's interesting that you cite PPP. Ten years ago they were perhaps the mirror of WAA. They started in 2001 as a regional firm for Dems, whose internal results were sometimes questioned on the right due to their sample. They only gained national prominence during the Obama-Clinton primaries in 2008.

[Adam Griffin]

Definitely take it with a grain of salt. It was commissioned by a blogger, which means more than likely, it was an automated poll and not live interviews. Automated polling is fine, if you're a tested pollster. WAA doesn't have a great track record. When you combine this with the fact that 1/3 of the calls were to mobile phones, I'm very skeptical. It's not like I'm automatically skeptical of either method; just when it comes to this pollster.

Some WAA 2012 IL Congressional Polls:


IL-8 (10/29/12): Duckworth 55%, Walsh 45% (D+10)
IL-8 (Election): Duckworth 55%, Walsh 45% (D+10)

IL-10 (10/29/12): Dold 54%, Schneider 46% (R+8)
IL-10 (Election): Schneider 51%, Dold 49% (D+2)

IL-11 (10/29/12): Foster 50%, Biggert 50% (Tie)
IL-11 (Election): Foster 59%, Biggert 41% (D+18)

IL-12 (10/29/12): Enyart 51%, Plummer 46% (D+5)
IL-12 (Election): Enyart 52%, Plummer 42% (D+10)

IL-13 (10/29/12): Davis 50%, Gill 45% (R+5)
IL-13 (Election): Davis 47%, Gill 46% (R+1)

IL-17 (10/29/12): Schilling 52%, Bustos 48% (R+4)
IL-17 (Election): Bustos 53%, Schilling 47% (D+6)

Red = outside of MoE

[Bojack Horseman]

I honestly think that despite the polls, Illinois is going to be just as close as it was 4 years ago. Pennsylvania isn't the reddest state in the country, and that said, I'm not sure there are as many Democrats who are willing to cross party lines and vote for Scott Walker on Steroids.

As it stands now, Democrats have a 60% majority in the House and a 68% supermajority in the Senate, so if Rauner wins, he'll probably meet the same fate as Linda Lingle did in Hawaii: Campaign every election to just get enough Republicans in the Legislature so they can't keep overriding every single veto.

[muon2]

Definitely take it with a grain of salt. It was commissioned by a blogger, which means more than likely, it was an automated poll and not live interviews. Automated polling is fine, if you're a tested pollster. WAA doesn't have a great track record. When you combine this with the fact that 1/3 of the calls were to mobile phones, I'm very skeptical. It's not like I'm automatically skeptical of either method; just when it comes to this pollster.

I wouldn't characterize the source as just a blogger. The site is run by one of the longest serving and most read (by insiders) statehouse reporters. He started his service providing a daily fax (hence the name) to subscribers before there was a web. He has posted about where and why pollsters have failed or succeeded in IL, so I suspect that he has had discussions with WAA about what to ask and what sample to select.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama is beloved in some parts of IL, but def Quinn is a possibility due to voters in IL negative reaction to Obama and not living up to expectations. He also said his Library may be relocated when the family considering living in NY.

But if Rauner is leading, i dont see him leading by this much, more like the Brady single digit lead, where it isnt out of possibility for Quinn to comeback from.

[Adam Griffin]

Definitely take it with a grain of salt. It was commissioned by a blogger, which means more than likely, it was an automated poll and not live interviews. Automated polling is fine, if you're a tested pollster. WAA doesn't have a great track record. When you combine this with the fact that 1/3 of the calls were to mobile phones, I'm very skeptical. It's not like I'm automatically skeptical of either method; just when it comes to this pollster.

I wouldn't characterize the source as just a blogger. The site is run by one of the longest serving and most read (by insiders) statehouse reporters. He started his service providing a daily fax (hence the name) to subscribers before there was a web. He has posted about where and why pollsters have failed or succeeded in IL, so I suspect that he has had discussions with WAA about what to ask and what sample to select.

Oh, I didn't mean to suggest that he was just any average blogger. Even if his site looks a bit antiquated (probably due to him being around for so long), I could tell that it had to be a fairly prominent political blog in the state. Rather, I was suggesting that since it was presumably paid for by him, that it was most likely an automated poll and not a live interview one.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know that Rauner isnt gonna really tell what he wants to do. In continuing giving tax breaks to the rich. He isnt a true moderate. His 55 million dollar salary proves it.

Quinn is trying to press issue with tax returns.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Besides taxes, what other issues have both Rauner and Quinn been talking about?

[Mr. Illini]

Besides taxes, what other issues have both Rauner and Quinn been talking about?

Quinn: Rauner wants to lower minimum wage, is corrupt an wealthy.

Rauner: Quinn is part of corrupt Illinois establishment.

*repeat*

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Besides taxes, what other issues have both Rauner and Quinn been talking about?

Rauner is hitting Quinn with the crime prevention program scandal, the overall economic climate (unemployment, pension problems, businesses leaving,etc.), and Illinois' joke of an education system (also, Quinn cut $500M after promising not to), in addition to the raising taxes issue (which Quinn also said he wouldn't do).

Quinn is hitting back by saying Rauner is too rich to understand inequality (plus, minimum wage), would be the next Scott Walker, and is associated with poorly run nursing homes in Florida. Quinn is also making a pathetic foray into identity politics with the gay community and the obviously monolithic "women voters". Quinn also says Rauner isn't being specific enough.

It's a typical nasty, depressing Illinois race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would of preferred Dillard v Madigan race.

Even in 2002, Blago got in on a split vote.

Most of the time, IL elect the least likeable Gov, except for Edgar,

[TX Conservative Dem]

If Edgar hadn't had health problems, he would have beaten Quinn very easily this year.