How did Vermont go from being the most Republican state to the most Democratic (user search)
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  How did Vermont go from being the most Republican state to the most Democratic (search mode)
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Author Topic: How did Vermont go from being the most Republican state to the most Democratic  (Read 45363 times)
DS0816
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Posts: 3,144
« on: November 01, 2015, 08:48:19 AM »
« edited: November 01, 2015, 09:04:40 AM by DS0816 »


^ WINNER!

Look…in 1964, Vermont carried Democratic the only time it had ever done so between the Republicans-vs.-Democrats of 1856 to 1988. In 1964, part of the reason Vermont made an exception and carried Democratic for Lyndon Johnson was because the Deep South duo of Alabama and Mississippi carried Republican for Barry Goldwater.

Alabama/Mississippi vs. Vermont: The trio carried for the 1872 re-election of Republican president Ulysses Grant. After that, they didn't carry the same until the 1972 re-election of Republican president Richard Nixon.

Why?

In part the answer has to do with an 1872 Grant and a 1972 Nixon re-elected in landslides in which they carried more than 80 percent of the available and participating states in the nation.

In fact, if you go over the precious few elections in which the trio carried the same…it's been because the winners carried at least three of every four states.

Another part of the reason is that Alabama/Mississippi, on one side, and Vermont, on another side, are typically very opposite on social and political issues. For 100 years to be the gap between carrying the same, and with a 49-state landslide (98 percent of available and participating states), says a lot.

When realigning the map of the Old Confederacy states (sans bellwether states) to the Republicans…it only stood to reason that the non-Old Confederacy states which backed winning Republicans (while the Old Confederacy states backed winning Democrats) would go ahead and do their own counter-realignment.

That's what happened with Vermont.
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DS0816
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,144
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2015, 05:27:09 PM »
« Edited: November 01, 2015, 05:31:02 PM by DS0816 »

^ I seriously can't believe you the fantasy you write.

The South was solid Democrat during the 1920s, 1930s, 1940s and 1950s, while Vermont was just as loyally Republican during that time.  Are you seriously suggesting the Democratic Party of those decades was a more conservative party than the Republican Party?  You can't be that dumb.

The first presidential election, in which a winning Republican carried today's Republican base states from the Old Confederacy [think Alabama/Mississippi], didn't happen until Richard Nixon's 49-state re-election in 1972. All eleven Old Confederacy states gave him margins above his national R+23.15.

The first presidential election, in which a winning Democrat carried all of today's Democratic base states, not among the Old Confederacy [think Vermont], didn't happen until Lyndon Johnson's 44-state landslide of a national margin of D+22.58. It included a map which, not unlike 1972, deviated from the then-historical norm (of that period and before it).

In 1988, winning Republican George Bush carried all Old Confederacy states above his national margin of R+7.72.

In the 1990s, the only state Democrat Bill Clinton, with counter-realigning the map, didn't carry above his national margins of D+5.56 (in 1992) and D+8.52 (in 1996) was Oregon. Both times, his carriage of Oregon was under those margins. In 2008 (and with re-election in 2012), all those states (now referred to as the "Blue Firewall" states) gave stronger margins than the national ones (D+7.26, in 2008; D+3.86, in 2012) to winning Democrat Barack Obama.

I know about the 1920s, the 1930s, the 1940s, the 1950s, the … point is that where we are now are results from years and decades in the makings that you're trying to mention with the 1920s, the 1930s, the 1940s, the 1950s and, well … it does take a long time for numerous states and numerous regions to break from long-established patterns. The presidential elections of 1960 and 1968 and 1976 were examples of Republican and Democratic presidential candidates winning in particular states (each other's party's turf) which used to back the opposing party (even in elections lost). Now, things are lot more solidified. But, Alabama/Mississippi will not vote Democratic while Vermont votes Republican without the two parties rebranding into what they used to be. They're polar-opposites' voting patterns (Alabama/Mississippi, on one side; Vermont, on the other side) are long-established traditions.
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