|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 30, 2020, 09:52:30 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA Senate District 16- Special Election
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Author Topic: PA Senate District 16- Special Election  (Read 7423 times)
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: April 05, 2005, 07:59:22 pm »

70% reporting

Browne - 11,058 - 52%
Mann -  9,717 - 45%
Minder - 591 - 3%
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: April 05, 2005, 08:37:11 pm »

That's pretty much the end.

94% reporting

Browne - 14,809 - 53%
Mann - 12,519 - 44%
Minder - 845 - 3%
Logged
Jake
dubya2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,649
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: April 05, 2005, 08:42:58 pm »

Wow, screwed that prediction up bad eh?  Only 11 points off Smiley
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: April 05, 2005, 08:43:34 pm »

Wow, screwed that prediction up bad eh?  Only 11 points off Smiley

Hey, as long as you screwed up in favor of the Democrat, everything is fine.  Smiley
Logged
Jake
dubya2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,649
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: April 05, 2005, 09:00:27 pm »

Final Results

MANN, JENNIFER L. (DEM) 13,507  44.58%
BROWNE, PAT M. (REP)     15,911  52.51%
MINDER, DRAKE E. (IND)        883    2.91%
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,654


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: April 05, 2005, 11:57:59 pm »

Clearly Keystone Phil aced this prediction fairly nicely.  Good job.
Logged
TeePee4Prez
Flyers2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,489


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: April 06, 2005, 03:25:50 am »

It's a shame for us Dems to lose someone as talented as Jennifer Mann.  Not sure what the rules are regarding her House seat.  She should have won this one.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: April 06, 2005, 05:20:16 pm »

Clearly Keystone Phil aced this prediction fairly nicely.  Good job.

Eh I guess there's a first for everything!  Smiley

Flyers, I don't see what this race would have to do with her House seat. Just think of it as Street running for Senate in 2006 (Just play along for a second). His term ends in 2008 but he'd be running in 2006. He'd still be Mayor.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: July 18, 2005, 03:58:09 pm »

This is getting bumped (even though probably only myself and Flyers will care...) for tomorrow's Special Election in the 131st Legislative district.

Pat Browne vacated his seat after winning the State Senate seat that was discussed in this thread. Tomorrow, a Special election will be held to fill the seat. The candidates are: Karen Beyer (R), Linda Minger (D), Drake Minder (I) and some Green party candidate.

Minder also ran in the State Senate election that was held back in April.

Pat Browne won in this district with 90% of the vote in 2004 but that's mainly because the Dems didn't even bother to put up a candidate. In 2002, however, Browne only won with about 62%. In 2000, Browne won with 59%.

Point is: The voters grew to know and like Pat Browne. A problem for Beyer - not as well known. However, some good news - It's a good GOP district (I have family in the district. I know a bit about it).

I'll post my prediction later.
Logged
Jake
dubya2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,649
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: July 18, 2005, 04:16:13 pm »

I care...a bit Smiley
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: July 18, 2005, 05:09:57 pm »

Though the district has over a thousand more Democrats than Republicans, many of these Dems fit the conservative Democrat description and have been used to voting Republican on the local level for awhile.

My prediction:

Beyer (R) - 52%
Minger (D) - 47%
Other - 1%
Logged
nini2287
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,624


Political Matrix
E: 2.77, S: -3.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: July 18, 2005, 08:31:33 pm »

Though the district has over a thousand more Democrats than Republicans, many of these Dems fit the conservative Democrat description and have been used to voting Republican on the local level for awhile.

My prediction:

Beyer (R) - 52%
Minger (D) - 47%
Other - 1%

I think that seems about right, we just can't seem to pull it out in the Lehigh Valley.  I also wonder if there will be any name confusion with Minger/Minder.   Flyers, did you end up going and campaigning for Minger this weekend?
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: July 18, 2005, 10:25:02 pm »

Though the district has over a thousand more Democrats than Republicans, many of these Dems fit the conservative Democrat description and have been used to voting Republican on the local level for awhile.

My prediction:

Beyer (R) - 52%
Minger (D) - 47%
Other - 1%

I think that seems about right, we just can't seem to pull it out in the Lehigh Valley.  I also wonder if there will be any name confusion with Minger/Minder.   Flyers, did you end up going and campaigning for Minger this weekend?

I was thinking about the Minger/Minder thing, too. And Drake Minder is also known because of his run in the State Senate race.

I'm sure Flyers went up to campaign. I was going to go up tomorrow but there were some conflicts with work/getting up there. All I know is that I keep reminding my aunt and uncle to get out to vote. If I was up there, I know I'd be working hard to get their whole neighborhood out. All I can do is hope that people remember...
Logged
TeePee4Prez
Flyers2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,489


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: July 19, 2005, 02:46:27 am »

Though the district has over a thousand more Democrats than Republicans, many of these Dems fit the conservative Democrat description and have been used to voting Republican on the local level for awhile.

My prediction:

Beyer (R) - 52%
Minger (D) - 47%
Other - 1%

I think that seems about right, we just can't seem to pull it out in the Lehigh Valley.  I also wonder if there will be any name confusion with Minger/Minder.   Flyers, did you end up going and campaigning for Minger this weekend?

No, due to family affairs I had to stay home this time.  I REALLY wanted to go up there thought.  KP, hate to disappoint you but recent polls had Minger up!
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: July 19, 2005, 03:55:50 pm »



No, due to family affairs I had to stay home this time.  I REALLY wanted to go up there thought.  KP, hate to disappoint you but recent polls had Minger up!

What polls? No public polls were released. Whatever you're getting from Camp Minger is most likely slanted in her favor big time.

By the way, how's that ever so popular State Senator Jennifer Mann doing?
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: July 19, 2005, 08:26:44 pm »

83% reporting...

Beyer (R) - 50%
Minger (D) - 43%
Minder (I) - 5%
Scheirer (G) - 2%
Logged
Jake
dubya2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,649
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: July 19, 2005, 08:30:08 pm »

Cheesy
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: July 19, 2005, 08:37:25 pm »
« Edited: July 19, 2005, 09:23:39 pm by Keystone Phil »

93% reporting...

Stays the same - Beyer 50%   Minger  43%  Other 7%

Minger is down by 452 votes. It's over.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: July 19, 2005, 09:07:41 pm »
« Edited: July 19, 2005, 09:23:51 pm by Keystone Phil »

Allentown's Channel 69 (WFMZ) says Meyer "looks to be the winner" in the race. Turnout is said to be alittle over 10%.

The DOS site shows Meyer 50% Minger 43% Other 7% but WFMZ http://wfmz.com/election/race1.asp shows something different...

Beyer - 52%
Minger - 41%
Minder - 5%
Scheirer - 2%


KP, hate to disappoint you but recent polls had Minger up!


How did tonight's poll look for Minger?
Logged
Max Power
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,184
Political Matrix
E: 1.84, S: -8.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: July 19, 2005, 09:10:19 pm »

Turnout is said to be alittle over 10%.
Not that suprising. If the third party candidates would have campaigned harder, they could have made a larger difference.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: July 19, 2005, 09:14:53 pm »
« Edited: July 19, 2005, 09:27:17 pm by Keystone Phil »

Turnout is said to be alittle over 10%.
Not that suprising. If the third party candidates would have campaigned harder, they could have made a larger difference.

Minder is an interesting guy. He got 3% in the Special Senate election due to the negative campaigning by the Republicans and Dems. I think it's fair to say he's about as recognizable as Beyer and Minger (and that's awesome for a third party candidate).

The Green party candidate - How is he doing it? The local paper in Allentown reported that he was almost invisible on the campaign trail and PA 131 is in no way a liberal area so this 2% is odd.

Anyway, WFMZ has 100% reporting. Beyer  51%  Minger  42%.
Logged
Max Power
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,184
Political Matrix
E: 1.84, S: -8.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: July 19, 2005, 09:18:59 pm »

Turnout is said to be alittle over 10%.
Not that suprising. If the third party candidates would have campaigned harder, they could have made a larger difference.

Minder is an interesting guy. He got 3% in the Special Senate election due to the negative campaigning by the Republicans and Dems. I think it's fair to say he's about as recognizable as Beyer and Minger (and that's awesome for a third party candidate).

The Green party candidate - How is he doing it? The local paper in Allentown reported that he was almost invisible on the campaign trail and PA 131 is in no way a liberal area so this 2% is odd.

Anyway, WFMZ has 100% reporting. Meyer  51%  Minger  42%.
Expecting Minger to win is like expecting Goliath to get back up and kill David and eat his bloody flesh.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: July 19, 2005, 09:23:22 pm »


Expecting Minger to win is like expecting Goliath to get back up and kill David and eat his bloody flesh.

Tell that to Flyers. Apparently, his made up polls had her winning this.

Even though the Dems have the voter registration advantage, this is a Republican friendly district. You'd need a conservative Democrat and a horrible Republican stuck in scandal throughout the campaign to win this seat.

Expect Beyer to have an easy time getting re-elected as time goes by.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: July 19, 2005, 09:26:59 pm »
« Edited: July 19, 2005, 09:28:48 pm by Keystone Phil »

I want to apologize for some confusion. I kept referred to Karen Beyer as Karen Meyer maybe twice in this thread. The names are confusing in this race. You have Minder and Minger and then Beyer so I start thinking "Meyer." Just so everyone knows, it's Karen Beyer.  Smiley
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines