New map - not a lot changed from the old map...Washington (11 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore + 5.58%Some wise Republicans I know have told me this state is truly in play and that it was a lot closer than the 2000 results would suggest because Maria Cantwell who won Slade Gordon's old Senate seat in 2000 "pumped up" the Democrat numbers here by spending something like $8 million of her own money...
I don't see anything that makes me move this state from the borderline between lean/solid Kerry
Michigan (17 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore + 5.13%In addition to generalized job loses in manufacturing, Michigan has been getting double dipped because many Big 3 auto jobs are moving sount as Ford plants shut down in Michigan and Honda plants open up in the South.
Like Washington, I don't see anything that makes me move this state from the borderline between lean/solid Kerry
Pennsylvania (21 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore + 4.17%The honest answer on this state is I just don't know.
Looking at it purely from a data point of view, (Voter registration, migration trends, polling, etc) Bush is up maybe 2 points, but you have to factor off of this that the GOOP numbers are a bit juiced from the semi-heated Spector/Toomey senate race.
If the election was Tommorrow I'd check the weather forcast. If the forcast called for rain I'd give it to Bush, if Iit called for a nice day I'd give it to Kerry.
Minnesota (10 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +2.40%GOP is very energized in this state. The "Get out the vote" effort from the GOP has gone from braindead to actually pretty decent in the last 6 years. I still think if it gets "really" close alot of Nader votes will "come home" and keep this one for Kerry, but it might be razor close...
Oregon (7 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +0.44% NOBODY (at least not from this planet) really seems to understand this state politically. Portland + Eugene are as democratic as it gets, the rest of the state is Deep Blue Bush. It's a battle of turnout. Are the Tree Huggers more organized than the guys with the Chainsaws, or the other way around?
A university poll had Bush up 2 points, which is to say we have no reliable information.
As far as I know, neither party has properly polled this state yet.
http://osrl.uoregon.edu/press/report/2004PresElection.pdfHaven't seen any polls from anybody I trust. I'll leave it for Kerry for now. That's not a "hard" call, just don't have enough evidence either way...
Iowa (7 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +0.31%For reasons that are not totally clear to me, Iowa is trending to Kerry at this point - Polls are showing Kerry at high single digits for a lead. No reason to flip this one.
Wisconsin (10 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +0.22%Wisconsin may bounce back fairly fast to Bush if the new jobs trend stays good. Only one poll from an "adaquate" firm that I saw had Bush +3, which I have nothing to disagree with, I broke out the poll and any flaws I found tended to hurt bush rather than help him. So Bush by a bit... for now anyway...
New Mexico (5 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +0.06%Seen three polls, one with Kerry +1, one with a tie, and one with Bush +4. I haven't got a clue on this state. Toss a coin, leave it for carry, flip to Bush, take your pick ...
Florida (21 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 0.01%Actually, I have this state pretty solid for Bush. Florida's economy is actually in darn good shape. Brother Jeb is very popular (Despite all the "angry democrat" hyperventalating Brother Jeb won re-election in a semi-landslide of +13 in 2002) I also don't think Dem turnout has anywhere to go - I think Gore/Brazille turned out every live voter, and a few dead one there was to have in 2000. Mason Dixon has Bush +8 (too much) Rasmussen has Kerry +1. A Mason Dixon beats a Rasmussen any day, and the average of the two - Bush Up 3 or 4 seems pretty close to reality right now.
New Hampshire (4 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 01.4%Two polls, two weeks apart by the same firm (ARG) has Bush +5 and +6. ARG is not a great firm by any means, and thus not quite enough for me to flip this state back to Bush. Less certain about Kerry taking this one than I was. If I see a poll from a firm I trust showing Bush ahead, I'd flip this state.. (I am surprised... I had this state semi-firm for Kerry a few weeks ago)
Missouri (11 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +3.34%Two polls, Bush +6 and Bush +7 - Can't see a reason to flip this one from llikely Bush
Ohio (20 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 3.51%A real Battleground state. Ohio has been hit quite hard economically, perhaps even more so than Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc. Terrance Group just finished up the "Full Meal Deal" polling of Ohio and had Bush at + 4.7. Apparently they polled the $%$# out of all the swing counties like Montgomery, Franklin, Hamilton,Lukas, and Stark
This is a firm I deeply respect, but think that this far out the way they do their likely voter models likely pads Bush's lead by a couple points. Bush barely ahead seems about right to me. Teeter/Hart had the state dead even, and they did it a week after Goaes. Bush up "barely" is my call, but if you wanted to argue Kerry up a point I would not argue back too hard either.
Nevada (5 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 3.55%Mason-Dixon has Bush at +11. (too much) While I would be surprised if double digits holds, I'll keep this one leaning fairly hard Bush's way.
Tennessee (11 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 3.86%Bob Schrum's firm had Bush +5, and that was with a hugely exagerated African American turnout model. Can't see a reason to change this state away from Bush.
Arkansas (6 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 5.44%Unless Kerry picks Robert E Lee as his runnning mate, the south is long gone...
West Virginia (5 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +6.32%Too close to call. Saw one poll a tie, the other Kerry +2. Don't actually trust either poll, so I'll stick with "Lean Kerry" till I get something I trust.
Louisiana (9 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +7.68%Saw one with Bush up 14, which seems a tad high, but state is still Solid Bush. State polls badly. Guy named Vern Kennedy (a self discribed "old coot") seems to only guy that can get decent results in this state.
Virginia (13 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +-8.04%Unless Kerry picks Robert E Lee as his runnning mate, the south is long gone...
Colorado (5 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +8.36%Colorado is in play... in 2008... but not this year......