LA-PPP: Swing state

[Tender Branson]

June 26-29, 2014
Survey of 664 Louisiana voters

...

Jeb Bush......................................................... 46%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%

Mike Huckabee ............................................... 46%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 46%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 45%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Chris Christie .................................................. 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 48%
Bobby Jindal ................................................... 44%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_LA_702.pdf

[Tender Branson]

If we take today's national Quinnipiac poll (Bush down 7, Huckabee & Paul down 9) and this LA poll, it would mean that LA is ca. 8-10 points more Republican than the nation.

That is similar to 2000 Gore levels, when the spread was also 8 points (up 0.5 nationally, down 7.5 in LA).

1992: R+1
1996: D+3
2000: R+8
2004: R+12
2008: R+26
2012: R+21
2014: R+9

[Miles]

My favorite part:

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[IceSpear]

Wow, this is legitimately surprising. Hillary continues to impress.

[IceSpear]

My favorite part:

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Did you notice that Hillary wins between 66-74% of the vote among 18-29 year olds? Are young voters in Louisiana really THAT Democratic, or is it just because of the small sample?

[BaconBacon96]

It would be quite remarkable if she won the state.

[Mr. Morden]

So according to PPP, Clinton leads Bush by just 1 point in NC, and trails him by 1 point in LA, meaning just a 2 point gap between the two states?  That would be quite a departure from 2008/2012.

Also, Jindal job approval is 32% approve, 56% disapprove.

[NHLiberal]

Lol Christie

[Never]

So according to PPP, Clinton leads Bush by just 1 point in NC, and trails him by 1 point in LA, meaning just a 2 point gap between the two states?  That would be quite a departure from 2008/2012.

Also, Jindal job approval is 32% approve, 56% disapprove.

Could Hillary Clinton make the Southern states more uniform in their results similar to the way her husband did in 1992? It seems possible.

[illegaloperation]

Once the Republican run up Clinton's negative, LA probably won't look so competitive anymore.

[RR1997]

At the end of the day, I don't think that Clinton will win this state. It will be a lot closer than usual though. I'm suspecting a 52%-46% victory for the Republican candidate in this state.

[Dixie Reborn]

My favorite part:

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Did you notice that Hillary wins between 66-74% of the vote among 18-29 year olds? Are young voters in Louisiana really THAT Democratic, or is it just because of the small sample?

Younger voters are far more African American than Louisianians as a whole. Plus many of them are University students from northern states.

[Dixie Reborn]

I agreed with RR1997, it's highly improbable that Louisiana will go (atlas) red in 2016. As 2016 approaches nearer, Clinton's vote percentage will continue to decrease.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Bill Clinton didn't just win in Louisiana in 1996; he won 52%-40%.

Louisiana is different from the rest of the Deep South, especially in demographics.  The Cajun Catholics have always been more Democratic than the Baptist whites in North Louisiana, and they have been swing voters in the past.  The problem with Louisiana today for the Democrats is that the political establishment, from top to bottom is Republican, and while Jindal is presently unpopular, there doesn't really seem to be a pathway back for the Democrats.

[© tweed]

why did the bottom fall out of Jindal so dramatically?

[eric82oslo]

why did the bottom fall out of Jindal so dramatically?

Probably because he decided he wanted to wage a war against his state's poor. Being an Asian, and even an Indian, one would expect him to have a high enough IQ not to do something as self-destructive as that.

[© tweed]

why did the bottom fall out of Jindal so dramatically?

Probably because he decided he wanted to wage a war against his state's poor. Being an Asian, and even an Indian, one would expect him to have a high enough IQ not to do something as self-destructive as that.

don't all Republican governors do that?

[pbrower2a]

why did the bottom fall out of Jindal so dramatically?

Probably because he decided he wanted to wage a war against his state's poor. Being an Asian, and even an Indian, one would expect him to have a high enough IQ not to do something as self-destructive as that.

don't all Republican governors do that?

Many have put themselves in danger of defeat by so doing -- and not only Jindal.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Louisiana is a state that, IMO, is more elastic than MS or AL.  There is a Cajun white vote that is willing to vote Democratic, even as the Northern LA white Protestant vote is pretty inelastic, but voting for a black candidate was too much out of the question for President.  The problem is that over the years, the Democratic bench has been decimated in LA, but there is a road back for the Democrats in LA that isn't there in many Southern states without substantial demographic change.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Swift justice for my thread which suggested that the state could poll close enough for her to campaign in it.