MN-Gravis Marketing: Sen. Franken (DFL) with huge lead (user search)
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  MN-Gravis Marketing: Sen. Franken (DFL) with huge lead (search mode)
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Author Topic: MN-Gravis Marketing: Sen. Franken (DFL) with huge lead  (Read 1822 times)
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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« on: July 08, 2014, 07:07:21 PM »

So what you're telling me is that Franken's chances of winning are the same as McConnell's?
No one suggested that prior to your post....

For the record, Franken is in much better shape than McConnell is, although neither is completely safe.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2014, 03:31:07 AM »

So what you're telling me is that Franken's chances of winning are the same as McConnell's?
No one suggested that prior to your post....

For the record, Franken is in much better shape than McConnell is, although neither is completely safe.

Larry Sabato did: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2014-senate/

He has MN as "Likely D" and KY as "Likely R" when MN should be "Safe D" and KY should be "Pure Toss-Up."

I know about Sabato. Apparently he's not even looking at KY polling, or at least that's what it seems like.

You can argue for Likely D in MN, in fact I have the same rating for that race. McFadden isn't a bad candidate on paper, Franken almost lost in 2008, a lot of the polling (not this specific poll) has shown Franken's lead at only about 10 points, which isn't fully secure four months out, and this remains a target for republicans in a big wave. I see MN (and VA for that matter) as being about as favorable for the democrats as MT, SD, and WV are for the republicans. They're races that appear to be (fairly) safe for one side or the other, but could go the other way if the bottom falls out for one side or the other.

But with KY, I agree that Sabato is overestimating things. It's difficult to not call McConnell a favorite, based on McConnell's huge monetary advantage and 2008 performance as well as Kentucky's heavily republican federal political leanings, which is actually the justification that Sabato uses for keeping it at Likely R. But what's my rating for the KY race? I only have it at Leans R.

Why do I only have KY at Leans R despite agreeing with Sabato on why McConnell's a favorite? Because of the polling. My message to McConnell is, is that if you are really as favored as Sabato and WaPo think you are, prove it to me in the polling. Right now, an average of the last four polls puts the McConnell advantage at a pathetic 1.25% (My average doesn't include internals). I, quite frankly, don't see how you can put a race at Likely R in which the polling is so close, and it's been about that close for the entire cycle (occasionally switching between McConnell leads and Grimes leads and then back to McConnell and so on...). If the average showed McConnell up 6 or so, I'd upgrade McConnell's chances, but right now leans R appears to be the right rating - accounting for underlying factors that heavily, heavily favor McConnell but also acknowledging the heavily close polling. Apparently Sabato sees no need to account for the polling, just stubbornly believing "McConnell's gonna Win no matter what!" and keeping it at Likely R despite tons of pressure to switch it to Leans R and plenty of polling to merit such a change or even a change to Toss-Up if Sabato suddenly decides to disregard underlying factors.
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