NH: Shaheen leads by at least 12 w/ reliable pollster

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NH-Senate Poll (6/19-7/1) from WMUR/UNH (https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2014_summer_senate070914.pdf): Shaheen 50, Brown 38, Undecided 12
Shaheen 57, Smith 34, Undecided 9
Shaheen 56, Rubens 30, Undecided 14

Favorable/Unfavorable
Shaheen - 57/29
Brown - 31/40
Smith -  18/21 (only 45% name recognition)
Rubens - 10/8 (only 23% name recognition)

(The one republican that NH knows and likes appears to be Sen. Kelly Ayotte, who has a 50/25 favorable/unfavorable rating. )

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I was disregarding a lot of the recent polling in this race due to it coming from companies like ARG and Vox Populi. But now that WMUR (and Suffolk) have confirmed what the often-not-trustworthy pollsters found (Shaheen ahead by 10-12 against Brown, who is the likely R nominee), I'm ready to upgrade Shaheen's chances.

NH-Sen moves from Leaning Democratic to Strongly Leaning Democratic.

While Scott Brown could turn things around if Shaheen has a major gaffe or two or we get a 1994-style wave election, right now it looks like the best option for republicans is to write off this race completely and admit that courting a carpetbagger was a bad decision.

[SWE]

Still more likely to flip than Kentucky

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Still more likely to flip than Kentucky

We'll see....Sabato's weekly newsletter comes out tomorrow. But assuming that that doesn't announce a change in NH and/or KY, he will indeed be pretty much the only person that believes that aside from WaPo. (I have KY at Leans R (as opposed to Sabato's Likely R), but even before this NH poll I viewed KY as likelier to flip than NH, Rothenberg continues to have McConnell at Leans and Shaheen at Likely, Cook continues to have McConnell at Toss-Up and Shaheen at Leans, 538 continues to have the two races at 80% R, NYT still has NH at 94% D and KY at 82% R, and Daily Kos continues to agree with Rothenberg, RCP continues to agree with Cook, and EP continues to have NH at strong D and KY at weak R.)

[NHLiberal]

Still more likely to flip than Kentucky

We'll see....Sabato's weekly newsletter comes out tomorrow. But assuming that that doesn't announce a change in NH and/or KY, he will indeed be pretty much the only person that believes that aside from WaPo. (I have KY at Leans R (as opposed to Sabato's Likely R), but even before this NH poll I viewed KY as likelier to flip than NH, Rothenberg continues to have McConnell at Leans and Shaheen at Likely, Cook continues to have McConnell at Toss-Up and Shaheen at Leans, 538 continues to have the two races at 80% R, NYT still has NH at 94% D and KY at 82% R, and Daily Kos continues to agree with Rothenberg, RCP continues to agree with Cook, and EP continues to have NH at strong D and KY at weak R.)

Hopefully RCP or Cook- the two big ones that have KY at "toss-up" will move NH to Likely D so SOMEBODY has it right. All the ones with NH at Likely D have KY as Lean R.

[IceSpear]

Still more likely to flip than Kentucky

LOL

These posts make me laugh every time.

[free my dawg]

WMUR/UNH is not a reliable poster.

Their House polling has been all over the place this year, and has been prone to wild swings. First they had CSP up by 16, then Guinta up 6, then CSP up 9, and now Guinta up 3.

And just recently, they had Kuster expanding her lead on Garcia by 14. Something with their methodology has been very, very wrong, and they haven't bothered fixing it. Disregard all UNH polls.

[NHLiberal]

WMUR/UNH is not a reliable poster.

Their House polling has been all over the place this year, and has been prone to wild swings. First they had CSP up by 16, then Guinta up 6, then CSP up 9, and now Guinta up 3.

And just recently, they had Kuster expanding her lead on Garcia by 14. Something with their methodology has been very, very wrong, and they haven't bothered fixing it. Disregard all UNH polls.

Maybe that's because New Hampshire is prone to wild swings? WMUR is the most reliable pollster in the state.

[free my dawg]

WMUR/UNH is not a reliable poster.

Their House polling has been all over the place this year, and has been prone to wild swings. First they had CSP up by 16, then Guinta up 6, then CSP up 9, and now Guinta up 3.

And just recently, they had Kuster expanding her lead on Garcia by 14. Something with their methodology has been very, very wrong, and they haven't bothered fixing it. Disregard all UNH polls.

Maybe that's because New Hampshire is prone to wild swings? WMUR is the most reliable pollster in the state.

One-fifth of NH voters aren't that fickle.

[Panda Express]

Looks like this is the end for Scott Brown