Based on current trends, which map is most likely in 2016?

[JRP1994]

Map 1: GOP wins 275-263

Map 2: GOP wins 270-268

Map 3: GOP wins 273-265

Map 4: GOP wins 273-265

Map 5: GOP wins 270-268

[Never]

Map 1 seems most likely. It indicates a uniform shift to the Republicans that wouldn't be out of the ordinary for a party out of the White House for eight years.

Map 2 could happen with a GOP nominee who did very well in New Hampshire during the primaries, but I would expect Iowa and/or Pennsylvania to flip Republican before The Granite State.

Map 3 is the second most likely map in my view. The GOP increases its margins with white voters (especially with seniors), but barely improves upon its 2012 showing with minorities. This allows a particularly close state like Florida to shift and whiter swing states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania to flip Atlas Blue. On the other hand, states with rapidly growing minority populations like Colorado and Virginia would be difficult to swing in this scenario. This map a plausible result of the Republicans winning while doubling down on outreach to white voters.

Map 4 would probably happen with a Midwestern Republican nominee who has a running mate from the Northeast, though I suspect that Pennsylvania would have to flip in this scenario.

Map 5 seemed unlikely to me. It would involve the GOP making a significant improvement with white voters and a steep decline in minority support compared to 2012. I just don't see that happening as soon as 2016 during a national Republican victory. Anyhow, if this actually happened, North Carolina would probably flip as well, and Georgia going Democratic wouldn't be out of the question.

[Person Man]

I imagine that if the Republicans win, they will win big, especially if there is another recession.