KY Sen: Grimes vs. McConnell: Who wins?

[Del Tachi]

McConnell with less  than 50% of the vote

[badgate]

McConnell will defeat False Grimes comfortably.

Did you get that after you unskew the polls?

In Soviet Kentucky, polls unskew themselves!

[Rockefeller GOP]

Grimes by <2 points.

I agree with this.

[The Mikado]

McConnell with less  than 50% of the vote

Is there even a third party candidate there?  Kentucky's one of the tougher states to get on the ballot on.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

McConnell with less  than 50% of the vote

Is there even a third party candidate there?  Kentucky's one of the tougher states to get on the ballot on.

I thought for sure a Libertarian was going to run. But the Libertarians sometimes drain votes from the Democrats too, especially when the Libertarian talks about ending the War on Drugs.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

McConnell will defeat False Grimes comfortably.

[windjammer]

McConnell, by 5-6.

This.

[Horus]

McConnell by at least 4.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Grimes can beat the odds and win by 1 or 2 pts.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The only polls where McConnell has led are Republican polls.

[Oak Hills]

McConnell with less  than 50% of the vote

Is there even a third party candidate there?  Kentucky's one of the tougher states to get on the ballot on.

Politics1 indicates that there is a Libertarian and an independent.

[Flake]

McConnell with less  than 50% of the vote

Is there even a third party candidate there?  Kentucky's one of the tougher states to get on the ballot on.

Politics1 indicates that there is a Libertarian and an independent.

Nope, only Grimes, McConnell, and a write-in candidate. It's still possible for someone to get under 50% and win, but that's highly unlikely.

[TX Conservative Dem]

This one's very easy: McConnell by double digits: I mean when is the DSCC going to stop targeting him when you know he's won 5 consecutive statewide elections since 1984 (on the likely cusp of a 6th this fall).

I sadly do NOT see Kentucky sending a Democrat to the United States Senate anytime soon: the state is too bloody red.

[NHLiberal]

This one's very easy: McConnell by double digits: I mean when is the DSCC going to stop targeting him when you know he's won 5 consecutive statewide elections since 1984 (on the likely cusp of a 6th this fall).

I sadly do NOT see Kentucky sending a Democrat to the United States Senate anytime soon: the state is too bloody red.

Why is this your argument every time?

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Between skimming this thread and seeing all the ratings for this race that range all the way from lean D to likely R just tells me that no one has a clue how this race will end.

[Maxwell]

This one's very easy: McConnell by double digits: I mean when is the DSCC going to stop targeting him when you know he's won 5 consecutive statewide elections since 1984 (on the likely cusp of a 6th this fall).

Every poll shows either McConnell behind or McConnell within single digits, and his last opponent held him to single digits too, so the 5 consecutive statewide elections is pretty irrelevent.

Not that I expected expert analysis here, but come on.

[ShadowRocket]

I'm going to got out on limb and say Grimes in one of the, if not the, closest margin of the night.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

This one's very easy: McConnell by double digits: I mean when is the DSCC going to stop targeting him when you know he's won 5 consecutive statewide elections since 1984 (on the likely cusp of a 6th this fall).

Ted Stevens won seven. Dick Lugar won six.

I think it's a bad idea to write this race off, especially when polling shows it consistently within the MOE. I think McConnell will pull it out as he always does but it will be a nailbiter for sure.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I dont think McConnell is the favorite this time. The GOP won all the close races in 2010 due to the wave. They havent won the close races, as recently as in 2012, without that type of tea party wave. I expect Grimes as well as Pryor pull out the close ones.

[Dixie Reborn]

McConnell by four points

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McConnell by 3-7 is the most likely. But anything from Grimes by 2 to McConnell by 9 is possible. I have this as Lean R. McConnell's massive advertising campaign and state political leanings will help him, but grimes' moderate nature and McConnell's low approval ratings are dragging him down, and he's not polling well at all right now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Grimes and Nunn are clearly underdogs in their races, but GOP like Eric Canter leadership can be defeated, as well as McConnell's because the focus on funding bills or impeachment. Not on passing border control or closing loopholes in tax code.

ALG can beat the odds and def McConnell, the DSCC just poured in 550K in this race. As long as it is a 1-3 pt race.

[Vega]

Grimes and Nunn are clearly underdogs in their races, but GOP like Eric Canter leadership can be defeated.

Well, he was defeated... by a Republican in a primary. It's easier to lose in your own party if your a Republican Leadership figure it seems.

[Suburbia]

After the 2014 Fancy Farm picnic, I could see it being too close to project a winner on Election Night.

[7,052,770]

I'm still picking McConnell for the same reason I picked Reid in 2010. It's just so hard to knock out someone that powerful.

Obviously I hope Grimes can prove me wrong.