KS: Survey USA: Davis Continues to Lead

[tmthforu94]

New Poll: Kansas Governor by Survey USA on 2014-06-25

Summary: D: 47%, R: 41%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[tmthforu94]

Some thoughts...

Kris Kobach is pretty controversial - the new voter registration laws aren't going over too well. He is leading just because there is less knowledge on that race - Kobach leads simply because he is a Republican.

Sam Brownback's campaign is just getting into the swing of things - they didn't want to start hitting the pavement until after the session ended. On the other side, Davis has been campaigning hard for months. Additionally, Brownback has a huge financial advantage over Davis which he has barely used to this point - Davis's lead is going to evaporate once Brownback begins hitting Davis on his fairly liberal record in the Kansas house (most liberal in the Democratic caucus I believe).

Essentially, this race is going to be pretty close due to some of Brownback's failed policies. Kansans aren't too fond of Brownback, but would they rather have Paul Davis? Ultimately, I think we will stick with Brownback.

As for 2018...time will tell. I think Yoder is going to be looking for a promotion, though he may be waiting for Roberts to retire in 2020. Jenkins is in House Leadership so I doubt she will make the jump unless the field clears for her. Kobach could run, but I think we have a lot better options out there. Todd Tiahrt may also go for it if he loses the Congressional primary this year. My pick at this point would be AG Derek Schmidt.

[tmthforu94]

I highly doubt Brownback loses the primary - there will be a lot of protest votes but Winn is almost completely unheard of. My knowledge is that while Brat was a complete surprise, he at least had somewhat of a campaign operation. Anyways, hopefully this poll causes the Brownback camp to wake up a bit - it's time to start operating in full gear.

[tmthforu94]

Tmthforu,
You're saying Davis isn't attacked at all right now??

But that's clearly stupid from the republicans if that's true. Ads won't work anymore when Davis will be much more well known. Ads work only when the person is relatively unknown.

Very little. Republicans dismissed his candidacy when he first announced because of his liberal voting record, but he has quietly build a pretty solid following and he's not going to go away easily.

Brownback's strategy seems to be to wait until September and October, flood the airwaves, and expect victory. He's going to need to do more than that to win, and hopefully this poll serves as a wake-up call.