Miami-Dade County (FL)/Miami Herald/Bendixen & Amandi International: Crist+12

[Tender Branson]

Sample: 400 interviews with Miami-Dade County registered voters
Dates of Interviews: June 3–5, 2014
Language of Interviews: English, Spanish
Margin of Error: +/- 4.3 Percentage Points

As you may know, on November 4ththere will be an election for Governor of Florida. If the election were held today and the candidates were the Republican Rick Scott and the Democrat Charlie Crist, whom would you vote for?

47-35-18 Crist/Scott/Don't know, No answer

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http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/06/08/4164296/herald-poll-cuba-cuban-voters.html

[Tender Branson]

Pretty lame result for Crist in Miami-Dade County ...

And it would back up SurveyUSA's recent FL poll, which had Scott ahead by 2.

[Donerail]

Eh, this is to be expected with his position on the embargo. In theory this'll be counteracted by bigger margins in the corridor.

[Flake]

Eh, this is to be expected with his position on the embargo. In theory this'll be counteracted by bigger margins in the corridor.

This reminds me of a quote from fantasyland (I think it was lief)

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In 2010, we saw record gains by Republicans, but Republicans really didn't gain numbers, Democrats lost numbers. Scott ran in that wave, and these last four years he has been signing bills and legislation that make old conservatives happy, and they always vote. Scott's even airing ads about his accomplishments to Crists failures, the one that stuck out to me thus far is the student loan ad, where even I was impressed.

I'm afraid that Democrats aren't enthusiastic about Crist, and many of those who vote "enthusiastic" only do so because he's a Democrat now.

In fantasyland I was ahead in the polls by a substantial margin, but I didn't turn out my base, and Crist will do the same thing here. He isn't a good candidate, and you can argue all you want, but the only reason Democrats are supporting him is because of the possibility of winning, and not much else.

And I'm afraid we're throwing away this seat with him.

[sg0508]

That is pretty darn weak for a Democrat in Miami-Dade.  They should be upwards, nearly 2:1 in the ending margin and at a minimum, 3:2.  No good.

[CatoMinor]

The FL Dems, CA GOP, TX Dems, and MN GOP should just disband.

[free my dawg]

Allow me to repost my treatise on Florida Democratic Logic. Surely explains why the DNC needs to cut all funding off of from the state party if they lose this race (and until they get their sh*t together), and my thoughts on this race and the party itself.

So, a rare swing district opens up... Republicans were essentially set to nominate David Jolly, a DC lobbyist, legal counselor to Bill Young, and vehicular killer with little ties to the district. Normal logic would say to run a good candidate who represents the Tampa Bay area and spends their time there, like a county commissioner or an attorney who made a surprise run at the seat last cycle.

But Florida Democrats follow a different type of logic. Florida Democrats' logic would be that running a lazy, failed candidate who lost to a slimy criminal and doesn't even live in the district would result in a pickup, and pouring obscene amounts of money into the race would flip this seat into her hands.... so thirty minutes ago, I watched the worst-case scenario unfold: Florida Democrats, one again, screwed the pooch.

Same thing with Rick Scott: normal logic would say to run a clean, honest candidate against a shady businessman who treats the state second to his old business this November to ensure a win, like one of the many Democratic mayors. Florida Democrat logic would be to run an ex-Republican who only turned Democratic to win back the office that he left in his last failed run. Now, my fears are starting to cook up again: same sh**t happens again, Crist loses to Scott, and Florida continues down the road of becoming the Hospital Corporation of America's business subsidary.