2012 Swing from Obama +3.86% to Romney +3.86%

[JRP1994]

Methodology:

1: Divide Obama margin in each state by that state's FiveThirtyEight elasticity score
2: For each Obama state, subtract 7.72% from the elasticity-adjusted margin. For Romney states, add the 7.72%
3: In the final column, margins stated are the ELASTICITY ADJUSTED margins.

Result:

Romney/Ryan: 332
Obama/Biden: 206

States/districts where the elasticity-adjusted margin of victory was under 5%:

1. Minnesota, 0.11%
2. Maine's 2nd Congressional District, 0.98%
3. New Mexico, 1.11%
4. Wisconsin, 1.41%
5. Michigan, 1.50%
6. Nevada, 1.53%
7. Pennsylvania, 1.92%
8. Oregon, 2.70%
9. Iowa, 2.75%
10. Colorado, 3.09%
11. New Hampshire, 3.36%
12. Virginia, 3.65%
13. Maine, 4.32%
14. Ohio, 4.93%

States/districts where the elasticity-adjusted margin of victory was between 5% and 10%:

1. Washington, 5.44%
2. Florida, 6.88%
3. Connecticut, 8.63%
4. New Jersey, 9.06%
5. Maine's First Congressional District, 9.12%
6. Illinois, 9.15%
7. North Carolina, 9.94%

[Never]

Interesting that Romney/Ryan ends up with the same electoral vote count as Obama/Biden actually did win.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I wish this had been the actual result.

[nclib]

Looks similar if not identical to a uniform swing.

[JRP1994]

Looks similar if not identical to a uniform swing.

Only difference is Minnesota.

[The Mikado]

Wait a minute.  Does that mean that under this system, in a tied race where they got exactly the same vote total the only Obama state that'd end up in the Romney column would be Ohio?  (With Virginia as basically dead even)

EDIT: Missed Florida.

Still, it's pretty impressive that Romney has to win by a fair margin to actually win the election.

[JRP1994]

Wait a minute.  Does that mean that under this system, in a tied race where they got exactly the same vote total the only Obama state that'd end up in the Romney column would be Ohio?  (With Virginia as basically dead even)

EDIT: Missed Florida.

Still, it's pretty impressive that Romney has to win by a fair margin to actually win the election.

Yes. Under this methodology, Romney would have to win the popular vote by about 4.36%, to net FL + OH + VA + NH.