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  OR-PPP: Merkley (D) with a 14-point lead (search mode)
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Author Topic: OR-PPP: Merkley (D) with a 14-point lead  (Read 1754 times)
Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
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« on: May 29, 2014, 09:47:29 AM »

50-36 Merkley/Wheby

Link will be out later.
How do you know that Tender Branson? Tongue
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Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
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*****
Posts: 14,344
France


« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2014, 10:03:11 AM »

Well,
I didn'y Wehby to be so well-known, (only 34% don't know her, 25% for Jeff Merkley, I expected the difference in term of name recognition more important).

But the problem is that she's already unpopular. Her scandal hasn't sunk her campaign, but some damages,...

And Jeff Merkley is relatively popular, and Obama isn't terribly unpopular (46/47). So, I know Republicans are always excited by saying "BLABLABLA, OBAMACAAAAAAAAAARE, OBAMA-CARE-CARE-CARE". But that won't be enough. The fact she's pro SSM and not anti abortion isn't enough. The last OR rep senator was seen as relatively moderate, but both on economic and social issues.

She should support some popular measures, like minimum wage hike, but I doubt she will do that, she still wants the Koch money you know.
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Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,344
France


« Reply #2 on: May 29, 2014, 10:16:32 AM »

Well,
I didn'y Wehby to be so well-known, (only 34% don't know her, 25% for Jeff Merkley, I expected the difference in term of name recognition more important).

But the problem is that she's already unpopular. Her scandal hasn't sunk her campaign, but some damages,...

And Jeff Merkley is relatively popular, and Obama isn't terribly unpopular (46/47). So, I know Republicans are always excited by saying "BLABLABLA, OBAMACAAAAAAAAAARE, OBAMA-CARE-CARE-CARE". But that won't be enough. The fact she's pro SSM and not anti abortion isn't enough. The last OR rep senator was seen as relatively moderate, but both on economic and social issues.

She should support some popular measures, like minimum wage hike, but I doubt she will do that, she still wants the Koch money you know.

How can you be sure the stalking allegations against her sunk her campaign? Against a generic R male candidate I would agree with you but since the accusations against her have been redacted against her by accusers I wouldn't be so sure. Also electorally I see it being alot harder to make these types of negatives stick against a female candidate even a Republican one in a Democratic leaning state like Oregon.

Overall I agree that she faces an uphill battle nonetheless.

Kevin, I believe the accusations won't implode her campaign, but she has a -16 in term of job approval, I can see 2 reasons:
- too moderate for the gop (20% of the GOP voters don't like her)
-and the stalking accusation, I mean, when you know nothing about the candidate, and the only time you have heard about her is this story,... Obviously you don't like her. Even if this scandal won't implose her campaign.
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