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  OR-PPP: Merkley (D) with a 14-point lead (search mode)
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Author Topic: OR-PPP: Merkley (D) with a 14-point lead  (Read 1738 times)
LeBron FitzGerald
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,908
United States

Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -6.78

« on: May 29, 2014, 08:44:19 PM »

I'd say Merkley has about the same chances of winning as McConnell does

 So +14 in polls = +3 in the polls?  Seriously?  While Kentucky is uber-GOP, the polls show McConnell is in for a long, hard fight.

Hey, I'm not saying McConnell will lose, I think he's favored heavily.  But Grimes is a far bigger threat than Wehby right now, barring a GOP wave.
SWE was obviously kidding. Larry Sabato who claims to be a "political analyst" has Oregon as likely D which isn't too big of an issue considering Merkley's weaker than Wyden and it's an Obama midterm against a socially moderate Republican, yet he has KY as likely R to which says something about how intelligent Sabato really is. Sabato's trying to say that Merkley has about as good of chance of getting re-elected as McConnell. SWE was mocking him for it (and rightfully so).

And considering how flawed and biased Wenzel is, this KY race is within a point, so it further disproves Sabato's prediction and you're right when you say that Grimes is a much higher quality candidate than the scandal-plagued doctor. Likewise the other way with Merkley being a lot stronger than McConnell. 14 points is obviously enough to call it safe D and a 1-2 point race in KY is enough to call it a tossup/tilt R.

IIRC though Gauss, you're a physics teacher? So as far as I'm concerned, you're a better scientist than Sabato ever will be. Wink
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