AR-Rasmussen: Cotton (R) up 4

[Tender Branson]

Arkansas Senate: Cotton (R) 47%, Pryor (D) 43%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/arkansas/election_2014_arkansas_senate

[RogueBeaver]

Ras is still Ras. Will wait for PPP or TB.

[Tender Branson]

Ras is still Ras. Will wait for PPP or TB.

I have no polling company, sry ...

[Free Bird]

Rass. Don't care.

[Miles]

New Poll: Arkansas Senator by Rasmussen on 2014-05-28

Summary: D: 43%, R: 47%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Chief Justice windjammer]

The problem with Rasmussen is that this pollster successfully manages to be both a dem flawed pollster, and a rep flawed pollster.

I will probably sent to Tender Branson an open letter asking him to ban totally Rasmussen

[Never]

So... Ras is schizophrenic. I can live with that.

[CatoMinor]

Ras is still Ras. Will wait for PPP or TB.

I have no polling company, sry ...

Alpine-American Respected Polling, or AARP.

[LeBron]

In Arkansas' 2010 Senate race, Rassy's average was Boozman +24 and it really ended up being Boozman +21, so Rassy isn't junk here, but they are off by a few. Marist of course was overestimating Pryor's chances way too much so they're negligible, but PPP did have this at Pryor +1 and TB Pryor +3, so these 3 polls indicate that this is a pure tossup now. Anyone's game, but Pryor's going to really struggle to avoid President Obama for the next 5 months and with Cotton avoiding his polarizing ideology, military service and voting record now and switching it with ads connected to him being a family man who cares about the average Arkansan, Pryor should be worried.

[GaussLaw]

I know this sounds odd, but I have a hunch that Club for Growth's parrot-pooping-on-the-NYT ad actually may have had a slight impact.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

In Arkansas' 2010 Senate race, Rassy's average was Boozman +24 and it really ended up being Boozman +21, so Rassy isn't junk here, but they are off by a few. Marist of course was overestimating Pryor's chances way too much so they're negligible, but PPP did have this at Pryor +1 and TB Pryor +3, so these 3 polls indicate that this is a pure tossup now. Anyone's game, but Pryor's going to really struggle to avoid President Obama for the next 5 months and with Cotton avoiding his polarizing ideology, military service and voting record now and switching it with ads connected to him being a family man who cares about the average Arkansan, Pryor should be worried.

It has long been the case that when landslides get rather big, they get hard to pin down to the point exactly. I recall that being the case with Baucus back in 2008, Hoeven and a couple of others as well.

[Torie]

Somebody said Cotton tanked (maybe it was Charlie Cook), because he voted against the execrable farm bill in the House. If so, his apparent recovery is most gratifying. Courage to do what is right even if it hurts politically should be rewarded - not punished!

[sawx]

I'm somehow taking Rasmussen less seriously than I did in 2012.

[morgieb]

Rassmussen has been utter crap this year. Just can't get any kind of lean or reliability of their polls.

[GaussLaw]

Somebody said Cotton tanked (maybe it was Charlie Cook), because he voted against the execrable farm bill in the House. If so, his apparent recovery is most gratifying. Courage to do what is right even if it hurts politically should be rewarded - not punished!

Yeah, I remember that article.

A gazillion different factors are at play in poll fluctuations, some of it being random chance.  Pryor was called doomed due to a string of bad, bad polls and then he lucked out with a series of good ones.

[Kevin]

Somebody said Cotton tanked (maybe it was Charlie Cook), because he voted against the execrable farm bill in the House. If so, his apparent recovery is most gratifying. Courage to do what is right even if it hurts politically should be rewarded - not punished!

[Chief Justice windjammer]

Somebody said Cotton tanked (maybe it was Charlie Cook), because he voted against the execrable farm bill in the House. If so, his apparent recovery is most gratifying. Courage to do what is right even if it hurts politically should be rewarded - not punished!

This is Rasmussen.

Cotton isn't up by 4.