If North and South Jersey were separate states

[hurricanehink]

As a resident of South Jersey, I have often wondered how different it would be if New Jersey were split into two, as has been proposed previously. I decided to see how it would affect the presidential elections since 1992, when New Jersey became less of a Republican state. For the purposes of the data, I considered South Jersey as Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Ocean, and Salem counties.

1992 for North Jersey:

Clinton	Bush	Perot	Others
43.46%	41.63%	14.08%	0.83%

1992 for South Jersey:

Clinton	Bush	Perot	Others
41.64%	37.83%	19.6%	0.94%

1996 for North Jersey:

Clinton	Dole	Perot	Others
54.31%	36.3%	7.5%	1.89%

1996 for South Jersey:

Clinton	Dole	Perot	Others
52.2%	34.73%	11.16%	1.91%

2000 for North Jersey:

Gore	Bush	Nader	Others
56.6%	40.22%	2.99%	0.18%

2000 for South Jersey:

Gore	Bush	Nader	Others
55.76%	41.06%	2.94%	0.24%

2004 for North Jersey:

Kerry	Bush	Others
53.84%	45.34%	0.83%

2004 for South Jersey:

Kerry	Bush	Others
50.68%	48.43%	0.88%

2008 for North Jersey:

Obama	McCain	Others
58.29%	40.53%	1.17%

2008 for South Jersey:

Obama	McCain	Others
63.98%	34.34%	1.68%

2012 for North Jersey:

Obama	Romney	Others
59.72%	39.25%	1.03%

2012 for South Jersey:

Obama	Romney	Others
55.17%	43.78%	1.05%

A few observations:
*On average, North Jersey is 1.7 percentage points more Democratic than South Jersey. This is not always true, as 2008 had South Jersey a full 2.24 percentage points ahead of North Jersey. If South Jersey was a state, it would have been Obama's third best state, percentage wise, after Hawaii and Vermont (and DC).
*South Jersey swung wildly from 2004 to 2008. In 2004, it had the closest result for any of the elections, with Kerry winning 50.68% to Bush's 48.43%, and winning by 23,693 votes. If South Jersey was a state, that would make it the 3rd closest Kerry state by vote total, after New Hampshire and Wisconsin.
*The closest between the two "states" was 2000, when North Jersey was only 0.84 percentage points ahead of South Jersey.

[Del Tachi]

Seems like a pretty good reason to not split New Jersey in two.

What's the point of splitting the regions if the new states are going to vote approximately the same way?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I don't consider that Ocean County is really 'South Jersey'. It's in the New York CSA and has the most culturally in common with Monmouth. One argument in favor of its being part of South Jersey is that it contains parts of the Pine Barrens, but all things considered I just don't think that really means as much as the CSA divisions or the nature of the Jersey Shore.

[hurricanehink]

I don't consider that Ocean County is really 'South Jersey'. It's in the New York CSA and has the most culturally in common with Monmouth. One argument in favor of its being part of South Jersey is that it contains parts of the Pine Barrens, but all things considered I just don't think that really means as much as the CSA divisions or the nature of the Jersey Shore.

I only included Ocean County as it's sometimes included, and geographically made sense.

Incidentally, this appears to have a major shift in terms of vote totals. If Ocean County were part of North Jersey (NJ) instead of South Jersey (SJ)...
2012 - SJ would have gone 59.6% compared to 58% for NJ.
2008 - SJ would have gone 59.6 for Obama compared to 56.6% for NJ
2004 - SJ would have gone 58.6% for Kerry compared to 52.4% for NJ
2000 - SJ would have gone 58.3% for Gore compared to 55.8% for NJ
1996 - SJ would have gone 54.0% for Clinton compared to 53.6% for NJ

As a whole, Ocean County would make South Jersey much more Republican, but without it, both Jerseys remain pretty solidly Democratic, with South Jersey being even more of a Democratic stronghold.

If South Jersey had Ocean County, it would have a population of 2,422,041, between Kansas and New Mexico. That is the cusp between 5 and 6 electoral votes. If Ocean County weren't there, South Jersey would have a population of 1,845,474, or slightly behind West Virginia, and slightly ahead of Idaho. This is on the cusp of 4 or 5 electoral votes. Without Ocean County, North Jersey would have 6,369,835 people, between Tennessee and Missouri and between 10 or 11 electoral votes. North Jersey would have 6,946,420 million people, between Washington and Massachusetts, on the cusp of 11 or 12 electoral votes.

[traininthedistance]

I don't consider that Ocean County is really 'South Jersey'. It's in the New York CSA and has the most culturally in common with Monmouth. One argument in favor of its being part of South Jersey is that it contains parts of the Pine Barrens, but all things considered I just don't think that really means as much as the CSA divisions or the nature of the Jersey Shore.

Came here to post exactly that.  Mercer County, actually, has a better claim on being "South Jersey" if one splits things in a way that's historically correct (East/West Jersey) and respectful of the NYC/Philly split.  And, yes, I know that it's kinda fuzzy around the edges, Princeton is more North while Tuckahoe is more South, but for the most part Mercer is further "south" than Ocean.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I don't consider that Ocean County is really 'South Jersey'. It's in the New York CSA and has the most culturally in common with Monmouth. One argument in favor of its being part of South Jersey is that it contains parts of the Pine Barrens, but all things considered I just don't think that really means as much as the CSA divisions or the nature of the Jersey Shore.

Came here to post exactly that.  Mercer County, actually, has a better claim on being "South Jersey" if one splits things in a way that's historically correct (East/West Jersey) and respectful of the NYC/Philly split.  And, yes, I know that it's kinda fuzzy around the edges, Princeton is more North while Tuckahoe is more South, but for the most part Mercer is further "south" than Ocean.

Oh, definitely. What would you say to a line drawn perpendicular to Route 1 in such a way as to roughly bisect Mercer County Park as the terminus est in Mercer? Personally, I think it's as good as any, and my mother lived and worked in the area for a number of years so that's a series of roads I've seen...probably more of than I would have freely chosen to, actually.

Also, isn't Tuckahoe all the way down almost to Cape May? Are we thinking of different places with that name?

[traininthedistance]

I don't consider that Ocean County is really 'South Jersey'. It's in the New York CSA and has the most culturally in common with Monmouth. One argument in favor of its being part of South Jersey is that it contains parts of the Pine Barrens, but all things considered I just don't think that really means as much as the CSA divisions or the nature of the Jersey Shore.

Came here to post exactly that.  Mercer County, actually, has a better claim on being "South Jersey" if one splits things in a way that's historically correct (East/West Jersey) and respectful of the NYC/Philly split.  And, yes, I know that it's kinda fuzzy around the edges, Princeton is more North while Tuckahoe is more South, but for the most part Mercer is further "south" than Ocean.

Oh, definitely. What would you say to a line drawn perpendicular to Route 1 in such a way as to roughly bisect Mercer County Park as the terminus est in Mercer? Personally, I think it's as good as any, and my mother lived and worked in the area for a number of years so that's a series of roads I've seen...probably more of than I would have freely chosen to, actually.

Also, isn't Tuckahoe all the way down almost to Cape May? Are we thinking of different places with that name?

You're right, I was thinking of Tuckerton.

I don't actually know Mercer County Park, I was just thinking of splitting it along the obvious diagonal (which was the old East/West split of course).  Princeton, the Windsors, and Robbinsville in North Jersey, the rest in South:

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I don't consider that Ocean County is really 'South Jersey'. It's in the New York CSA and has the most culturally in common with Monmouth. One argument in favor of its being part of South Jersey is that it contains parts of the Pine Barrens, but all things considered I just don't think that really means as much as the CSA divisions or the nature of the Jersey Shore.

Came here to post exactly that.  Mercer County, actually, has a better claim on being "South Jersey" if one splits things in a way that's historically correct (East/West Jersey) and respectful of the NYC/Philly split.  And, yes, I know that it's kinda fuzzy around the edges, Princeton is more North while Tuckahoe is more South, but for the most part Mercer is further "south" than Ocean.

Oh, definitely. What would you say to a line drawn perpendicular to Route 1 in such a way as to roughly bisect Mercer County Park as the terminus est in Mercer? Personally, I think it's as good as any, and my mother lived and worked in the area for a number of years so that's a series of roads I've seen...probably more of than I would have freely chosen to, actually.

Also, isn't Tuckahoe all the way down almost to Cape May? Are we thinking of different places with that name?

You're right, I was thinking of Tuckerton.

I don't actually know Mercer County Park, I was just thinking of splitting it along the obvious diagonal (which was the old East/West split of course).  Princeton, the Windsors, and Robbinsville in North Jersey, the rest in South:

That's roughly the line I was thinking of. Better, actually. The only reason I expressed it the way I did was because I had a (paper) road map in front of me but not one with municipal boundaries and I didn't feel like doing an internet search because I was tired.