There are five distinct Clinton-but-not-Obama states that Bill Clinton won twice and Barack Obama got clobbered in -- twice: Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia. Also of interest will be Georgia and Missouri.
state Kerry loss '04 Obama loss '08
AR 54-44 59-39
KY 59-40 57-41
LA 57-42 59-40
TN 57-43 57-42
WV 56-43 56-43
GA 58-41 52-47
MO 53-46 49-49
If you can see a pattern -- tell me what it is. I'd like to know.
2000 would be needed to see a pattern, IMO. Those are traditionally Democrat-friendly states, some of which still prefer Democrats locally and/or for the Senate, but they're simply not going to vote for a liberal from Massachusetts (and also a lousy candidate) or a Black liberal from Illinois.