AR-PPP: Arkansas is Hillary County (unless Huckabee runs)

[Maxwell]

Arkansas is definitely more likely: Arizona hasn't swung any direction since Gore. Well, okay, it has, but not in the direction Democrats want it to (Bush won by 6 in 2000, but since then its been 10+ margins). It seems pretty inelastic at this point, but I assume Hillary could get within 5 of it, maybe even 3 or 2 if  its a particularly bad GOP nominee.

[Rockefeller GOP]

The Clinton name still resonates strongly there, it seems.

And most people in the state still proudly consider themselves Democrats (though certainly not progressives) ... Let's face it, McCain/Romney margins in Arkansas were NOT because the state is this deep red state; race played a factor.

[pbrower2a]

Arkansas is definitely more likely: Arizona hasn't swung any direction since Gore. Well, okay, it has, but not in the direction Democrats want it to (Bush won by 6 in 2000, but since then its been 10+ margins). It seems pretty inelastic at this point, but I assume Hillary could get within 5 of it, maybe even 3 or 2 if  its a particularly bad GOP nominee.

Barely 10 in 2004
8.5 in 2008 despite having a Favorite Son R
9 in 2012

Recent polls show Arizona going very close. Demographics (fast-growing Mexican-American electorate) suggest that Arizona is going in the same direction as neighboring Nevada and New Mexico and one-point-neighbor Colorado. Slower, but inexorably.