2016 Senate: Republicans maintain it? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 09:41:38 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  2016 Senate: Republicans maintain it? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 2016 Senate: Republicans maintain it?  (Read 10299 times)
MATTROSE94
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,803
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.43

P P P
« on: May 17, 2014, 01:04:12 PM »

It is really difficult to say whether the Republicans could maintain the Senate in 2016 should they win it this year.

While Kirk seems like a good senator, Illinois is such a left-leaning state that all it could take for him to lose is a average Democratic presidential nominee and an acceptable opponent. On the other hand, if the Republicans win the White House, he could barely hold on.

Johnson is probably the next most vulnerable senator. He is quite conservative for Wisconsin, which might cause him to lose some ground with a presidential electorate. Still, he appears to be a strong campaigner, which might allow him to hold on. If the Republican presidential nominee wins the election, I'd expect him to be reelected. On the other hand, should the Democratic presidential nominee win by less than 5 points nationally, I'd estimate that he would have a 50/50 chance of keeping his seat, but if the Democrat wins by a larger margin than that, then his or her coattails would probably take down Johnson.

Toomey can probably hold on as long as the Democratic presidential nominee doesn't win Pennsylvania by a huge margin. He is good enough of a senator that I would expect many Pennsylvanians to pick him over his opponent.

Ayotte is probably at some level risk simply because there are many credible opponents in New Hampshire. Still, she might be able to run ahead of the other Republicans on the ballot, as others on this thread expect.

Rubio and Portman will probably hold on, and I'm not too worried about either one losing.

The Republicans could make some pickups. Obviously, their best opportunity would be to have Brian Sandoval run against Harry Reid in Nevada. I'd say this would be a 50/50 race, and that Sandoval would win if the Democratic presidential nominee wins less than 54/55% of the vote nationally. Even though Nevada tilts Democratic, Sandoval is a particularly strong option. Unfortunately for the Republicans, that might be their only pickup of the night. Although Bennet is definitely not the strongest candidate, it is important to remember how thin the Republican bench is in Colorado. After all, until Cory Gardner jumped in this year's Senate race in the state, Udall was practically assured of victory. If the bench was that weak during a midterm, what Republican will challenge Bennet in a presidential electorate that favors the Democrats more? There could be another GOPer in the state who might end up being a credible threat to Bennet, but right now, I only think Bennet would lose if the Republicans win the White House.

All in all, Kirk and Johnson are probably at high risk of losing their seats, and Toomey and Ayotte are probably both going to have competitive races. Barring a Democratic landslide, the Republicans are in danger of losing about three or four seats. They could make up for that with one pickup, or two if they are having a good night. Based on that, a Democratic net gain of 1-4 seats seems plausible should the Democrats win the presidential election, and if the Republicans win the White House, their party will probably either break even or have a net gain of 2 seats.

It seems that the Republicans need to get to least 53-54 seats in the Senate after November's election in order to secure their majority for 2016.
I think that if Cory Gardner loses this year against Mark Udall by a slim margin, he might run again in 2016 against Michael Bennett and could potentially defeat him.
Logged
MATTROSE94
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,803
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.43

P P P
« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2014, 11:28:37 AM »

It is really difficult to say whether the Republicans could maintain the Senate in 2016 should they win it this year.

While Kirk seems like a good senator, Illinois is such a left-leaning state that all it could take for him to lose is a average Democratic presidential nominee and an acceptable opponent. On the other hand, if the Republicans win the White House, he could barely hold on.

Johnson is probably the next most vulnerable senator. He is quite conservative for Wisconsin, which might cause him to lose some ground with a presidential electorate. Still, he appears to be a strong campaigner, which might allow him to hold on. If the Republican presidential nominee wins the election, I'd expect him to be reelected. On the other hand, should the Democratic presidential nominee win by less than 5 points nationally, I'd estimate that he would have a 50/50 chance of keeping his seat, but if the Democrat wins by a larger margin than that, then his or her coattails would probably take down Johnson.

Toomey can probably hold on as long as the Democratic presidential nominee doesn't win Pennsylvania by a huge margin. He is good enough of a senator that I would expect many Pennsylvanians to pick him over his opponent.

Ayotte is probably at some level risk simply because there are many credible opponents in New Hampshire. Still, she might be able to run ahead of the other Republicans on the ballot, as others on this thread expect.

Rubio and Portman will probably hold on, and I'm not too worried about either one losing.

The Republicans could make some pickups. Obviously, their best opportunity would be to have Brian Sandoval run against Harry Reid in Nevada. I'd say this would be a 50/50 race, and that Sandoval would win if the Democratic presidential nominee wins less than 54/55% of the vote nationally. Even though Nevada tilts Democratic, Sandoval is a particularly strong option. Unfortunately for the Republicans, that might be their only pickup of the night. Although Bennet is definitely not the strongest candidate, it is important to remember how thin the Republican bench is in Colorado. After all, until Cory Gardner jumped in this year's Senate race in the state, Udall was practically assured of victory. If the bench was that weak during a midterm, what Republican will challenge Bennet in a presidential electorate that favors the Democrats more? There could be another GOPer in the state who might end up being a credible threat to Bennet, but right now, I only think Bennet would lose if the Republicans win the White House.

All in all, Kirk and Johnson are probably at high risk of losing their seats, and Toomey and Ayotte are probably both going to have competitive races. Barring a Democratic landslide, the Republicans are in danger of losing about three or four seats. They could make up for that with one pickup, or two if they are having a good night. Based on that, a Democratic net gain of 1-4 seats seems plausible should the Democrats win the presidential election, and if the Republicans win the White House, their party will probably either break even or have a net gain of 2 seats.

It seems that the Republicans need to get to least 53-54 seats in the Senate after November's election in order to secure their majority for 2016.
I think that if Cory Gardner loses this year against Mark Udall by a slim margin, he might run again in 2016 against Michael Bennett and could potentially defeat him.

Perhaps, certainly in a strong Republican year with a nominee like Rand Paul and a generic Democrat. Same with Reid if he goes against Sandoval. Colorado is NOT gone for Republicans. Even Hillary has been trailing in hypotheticals there.
I agree. I think that Colorado has a pretty good chance to vote Republican in 2016, especially if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.036 seconds with 12 queries.