2016 Senate: Republicans maintain it? (user search)
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  2016 Senate: Republicans maintain it? (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2016 Senate: Republicans maintain it?  (Read 10294 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: May 17, 2014, 03:14:19 AM »

It's very possible.  The "map penalty" was actually even higher for Democrats in 2012 when they had to win a bunch of McCain states + states that Obama barely won for it to work.  For example, if 2016 is a Republican presidential win with the same margin as Obama in 2012, the Republican nominee would probably carry every state with a GOP seat up save for Illinois.

A lot of the 2010 R pick ups were only in soft Dem states.  If Hillary wins 55/43, then it very well might be D+11.  If the 2016 Dem turns in a Kerry level narrow loss, I could easily see the senate being R+1-2

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: May 17, 2014, 04:58:51 PM »

It does seem like Hillary has some unique strength compared to Obama in FL.
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