Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
Posts: 12,522
|
|
« on: May 17, 2014, 03:14:19 AM » |
|
It's very possible. The "map penalty" was actually even higher for Democrats in 2012 when they had to win a bunch of McCain states + states that Obama barely won for it to work. For example, if 2016 is a Republican presidential win with the same margin as Obama in 2012, the Republican nominee would probably carry every state with a GOP seat up save for Illinois.
A lot of the 2010 R pick ups were only in soft Dem states. If Hillary wins 55/43, then it very well might be D+11. If the 2016 Dem turns in a Kerry level narrow loss, I could easily see the senate being R+1-2
|