2016 Senate: Republicans maintain it?

[Kevin]

I agree with the TheHawk's sentiments-the national environment for 2016 is way too unclear right now to speculate about whether the Democrats will reclaim the Senate or not(should they even lose it to begin with).

If a GOP wave does happen this year which results in the party regaining the upper chamber followed by an overall Democratic victory in 2016-right now I can only see the GOP losing NH, WI, and IL if it's replay of 2012 and perhaps IA/AZ if ether of the incumbents there retire. I could also see Burr being vulnerable given that NC has a strong anti-incumbent voting history.

While I am skeptical of Toomey losing since PA has a strong history of ticket splitting. Ex. all the GOP Senators prior to 2006 where reelected when the Dems carried the state on the Presidential level. Same goes for OH, MO and FL as well.

If the GOP loses the Senate in 2016 combined with a Democratic Presidential victory. It's very possible imo that the Democrats will fall to the same midterm curse as Bill Clinton/Obama have. In which case the Republicans stand a a good chance of regaining the Senate in 2018(even in a neutral year) given that like 2014-18 will has a number of Red State Democrats( who got very lucky in 2012) up for reelection(think McCaskill, Heidkamp, Donnelly and Tester)

Likewise, Very liberal Democrats who represent swing states such as Brown and Baldwin are targets too. Same potentially goes for certain NJ Senator dogged by continuing ethical problems(looking at you Bob Menendez). Also I wouldn't discount Kaine, Casey, Cantwell, Nelson, or Stabenow facing strong challenges in 2018 ether.

[Kevin]

Burr could be in trouble if the Dems nominate a decent candidate or if he retires. He's basically the GOP version of Hagan- low name rec, low controversy, but susceptible to a charismatic or qualified  opponent (a danger which Hagan has fortunately dodged).

As of now I would say that only Kirk, Johnson, and maybe Ayotte are the most vulernable GOP Senators should the Dems win the WH again in 2016.

I agree with you that Burr could go down in a Democratic landslide or his seat could flip if he retires but that all looks unlikely as of now esp. since we haven't even finished 2014 yet let alone begun seriously taking about 16.