2016 Senate: Republicans maintain it?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, as far as I can tell, the most accurate early 2016 senate outlook is thus (assuming Sandoval runs in NV and either Rossi or Rob McKenna runs in Washington State):



As you can see, with Kirk, Toomey, and Johnson as underdogs to keep their seats, and Rubio, Ayotte, Portman, and Blunt with insecure advantages, and with Burr having what is essentially a 50-50 chance of another term, plus additional vulnerabilities if retirements occur in IA, AZ, GA, and/or AR, the republicans will be spending most of their time defending their own turf. However, their spare time will be spent in CO and NV which are 50-50 races just like NC, in WA where democrats have an insecure advantage, and in OR and CT if retirements occur. 

So, this comes out to 12 republican vulnerabilities and five democratic vulnerabilities. This suggests that, assuming a democratic presidential victory in 2016, republicans would be very hard pressed to keep a 51-49 or 52-48 majority, but beyond that....we'll just have to see.