2016 Senate: Republicans maintain it?

[henster]

If Ds lose the Senate they will recruit their strongest candidates possible in every race they can realistically win Kirk v. Madigan, Cordray v. Portman, Kind/Feingold v. Johnson, Castor/Murphy v. Rubio, Hassan v. Ayotte and try to expand the map in states like IA, MO, AZ etc.

[henster]

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Hilary is gonna spend a lot of time trying to win over the New York Snow birds that vacation in Florida during  Christmas. Florida is more winnable to us cause it might be an open seat should Rubio opt to run for prez. Patrick Murphy should beat any GOPer not named Rubio. Clinton is gonna spend a lot of time def Johnson , Kirk and Toomey.

I don't think Democrats are likely to nominate Murphy for Senate. He's one of the more vulnerable incumbents in the House, and there were early reports that he wanted to join the Republicans.

http://www.mediaite.com/online/democrat-who-beat-allen-west-in-2012-discussed-flipping-to-gop-according-to-report/

That said, in a large swing state with 27 congressional districts, the Democratic party should be able to find a plausible candidate.
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The current FL maps may be redrawn because of the redistricting court case and Murphy may get a more favorable seat as a result.

[henster]

Polling I've seen shows Ayotte is not popular in NH she has middling approval ratings at best. I think she is too conservative for the state her voting record will be attacked heavily and someone like Hassan or Lynch would make the race very competitive. Also if Nixon runs against Blunt in MO it would be a tossup no doubt. Murray is safe in WA if she survived 2010 she should have no problem in 2016 against whomever she is a good politician who knows how to win tough races.

[henster]

Polling I've seen shows Ayotte is not popular in NH she has middling approval ratings at best. I think she is too conservative for the state her voting record will be attacked heavily and someone like Hassan or Lynch would make the race very competitive. Also if Nixon runs against Blunt in MO it would be a tossup no doubt. Murray is safe in WA if she survived 2010 she should have no problem in 2016 against whomever she is a good politician who knows how to win tough races.

I think you are about right on Ayotte and Blunt. Murray, on the other hand, could be vulnerable if McKenna runs against her and the Republicans have a good night nationally. Should the Republican presidential nominee win at least 300 electoral votes, someone like McKenna could leave the WA-Sen race up in the air for a few days and possibly leave the election with a narrow victory. Of course, Murray isn't in any danger if a Democrat wins the presidency in '16.

If McKenna couldn't win against Inslee in an open Governor race what makes you think he would win against Murray a powerful incumbent who brings home a ton of $$ for the state. Even if a Republican is winning nationwide they won't be winning Washington state it'd likely be a 10 point Democratic win there giving Murray more than enough room to win.

[henster]

Illinois is the easiest Dem pickup someone like Madigan could turn it into a Safe D seat or even force into Kirk into retirement. Wisconsin is the second easiest pickup for Dems, Johnson is way too conservative for the state and not a good very a good politician either. Pennsylvania is third easiest pickup, Toomey barely won in a wave year and is not super popular either.

[henster]

As for leadership, it was said earlier that if Reid left office Schumer would get the job.  That was before E. Warren and others of her ilk were in power/vocal.  Schumer has close ties with Wall St. and the Democrats are increasingly weary of being closely tied w/ them; it is possible, for sure, that Schumer wouldn't be the Leader, though he desperately wants it.

Warren doesn't have that influence among Senate Ds and she practically owes Schumer, Durbin, Reid for getting her elected they talked her into running, cleared the primary for her and helped raise money for her and gave her Chair of the committee she wanted to be on.