2016 Senate: Republicans maintain it?

[moderatevoter]

The map is daunting for the GOP, sure, but some people here are overconfident about Dem chances. Yes, with the map, there is potential for a big Dem year. But we don't know what the environment or the circumstances are like.
I think the only truly doomed one is Kirk. My roomate from Chicago is convinced Madigan wants to stay in IL, but even without her, the state is very tough in presidential years. I think Toomey and Ayotte can run about 4-5% ahead of the top of the ticket, and it depends who they are up against. The PA Dem bench is not so stellar, particularly now that Kane is in trouble with this scandal.

Yes, the pieces are there, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion by any stretch.

[moderatevoter]

I think people here (nothing new, really) are counting people out way too early. We have two and a half years to go.

Johnson is vulnerable, obviously, but is he toast? Unless Feingold runs (no guarantees), then I wouldn't say so.

Kirk is obviously in a very tough spot though. Like I said earlier, if a Democrat wins the White House by a margin around or smaller than Obama's 2012 margin, then I can see both Ayotte and Toomey squeaking out wins.

OC, how is Florida a "definate" pickup? Have you seen the Democratic bench in Florida? That state party apparatus is pathetic and the bench is weak.

[moderatevoter]

I believe in 2010, when Reid looked done, the Senate Dems figured out who would take over as Caucus leader, and Schumer beat Durbin out. So in the situation Reid goes down in 2016, I think Schumer takes over.

After McConnell (and if Cornyn retires too), I think Thune takes over as of now.