Polling I've seen shows Ayotte is not popular in NH she has middling approval ratings at best. I think she is too conservative for the state her voting record will be attacked heavily and someone like Hassan or Lynch would make the race very competitive. Also if Nixon runs against Blunt in MO it would be a tossup no doubt. Murray is safe in WA if she survived 2010 she should have no problem in 2016 against whomever she is a good politician who knows how to win tough races.
I think you are about right on Ayotte and Blunt. Murray, on the other hand, could be vulnerable if McKenna runs against her and the Republicans have a good night nationally. Should the Republican presidential nominee win at least 300 electoral votes, someone like McKenna could leave the WA-Sen race up in the air for a few days and possibly leave the election with a narrow victory. Of course, Murray isn't in any danger if a Democrat wins the presidency in '16.
If McKenna couldn't win against Inslee in an open Governor race what makes you think he would win against Murray a powerful incumbent who brings home a ton of $$ for the state. Even if a Republican is winning nationwide they won't be winning Washington state it'd likely be a 10 point Democratic win there giving Murray more than enough room to win.
Oh, let me just say that I don't think McKenna is favored or anything like that, I just don't feel that Murray is a 100% lock to win if he is her opponent. Does Murray have 90-95% chance of winning at this point? Yes, but until we have a clearer picture of the national environment in 2016, I think this race should be at Likely D-borderline Safe D.
It's worth noting that while McKenna lost against Inslee, it was only by three points during an Obama victory of nearly 15 points. While Murray has incumbent strength, it is entirely possible that if the Republican presidential nominee wins nationally and loses in WA by just 10 points, McKenna could eke out a victory.
The difference is also that Inslee was a hack running for an open seat with an unpopular outgoing incumbent, and Murray is essentially a female Scoop Jackson.
Inslee is that bad? I can't say I focused on him too much in 2012, so I can't say one way or the other. Since you are from Washington state and probably quite familiar with that state's politics, and I'm not on either count, I'll take what you're saying seriously. Murray is strong (beating back Rossi in 2010), but in a good Republican year, a race between her and McKenna could end up being competitive.
On a side note, perhaps McKenna should just run against Inslee in a rematch for the Governor's Mansion if Inslee is weaker than Murray.
I'll admit I prefer Cantwell to Murray out of our two Senators, but both of them are pretty unbeatable by anyone in our state's GOP bench. McKenna was the best GOP candidate in a generation - moderate, from the Seattle area, had won a statewide election - and he still couldn't close against a guy who'd spent a decade in DC and not in WA, unlike Locke and Gregoire before him. (Full disclosure, I voted for McKenna). McKenna doesn't seem like someone who wants to go to Congress - I doubt he'll run again, for governor even.
I honestly have no idea who the GOP will put up for either Gov or Senate in 2016. Inslee would be the easier target, he's not doing super well so far. None of the Congressmen/women would give up a safe seat (all four Rs are safe) to take on Murray, but Inslee will be hard to unseat as an incumbent.
