2016 Senate: Republicans maintain it?

[LeBron]

Not a chance. If they win in 2014, they'll have a 1-3 seat majority depending on what Angus King does and what happens in AK, NC and IA. The Senators will already have financial setbacks from much more GOP focus on the Presidential race which can't be said of 2010 plus the fact that some Senators like Burr and Blunt will have to worry about primary challenges before even getting to the general.

There's not even a guarantee Kirk will run given his health problems, but if he does, the race will still be in Democrats favor for a pickup as long as Democrats get someone strong like Madigan or Duckworth. This is leaning in the favor of being D+1

Johnson is probably doomed either way whether Feingold is the nominee or Kind is. Feingold's a very popular guy who could easily take out a Tea Party Senator in a Presidential year while Kind, although not the strongest, would have great moderate appeal statewide and would be well-funded. This is likely to be D+1, to.

And just from that, there likely goes any chance the GOP would have at holding their majority if they win it in 2014. We'll still need more info on some retirements and who's running to determine the danger of some of these other seats, but out of all GOP seats at threat, I would say about D+3 among the rest. In the order of next likely pickups - PA, NH (if Hassan runs), MO (if Nixon runs), NC, OH, FL, AZ, GA (if Isakson retires), IN (w/Bayh), AR (w/Beebe), and UT (w/Matheson). Regarding IA, Grassley will probably end up running and not even one of the Vilsack's could make that competitive. I also wouldn't count out Utah, either as shocking as it might seem. Zioneer did say if Matheson chooses to run for Senate over Governor in 2016 and if Lee fends off a primary from Romney or Chaffetz, then he could make it competitive. PPP even had Matheson leading Hatch in 2012 (who has higher approval ratings than Lee does) in a hypothetical and he was strongly winning independents, so it's not out of the question.

On the defensive side, the CO GOP is flat-out terrible (nominating a Birther and a social conservative for the Gov and Sen seats this year) so Bennet shouldn't be worried especially when he's well-funded and is a great fit for the state. As for NV, we'll have to see who wins the Lt. Gov. seat in NV this year plus, Sandoval doesn't seem to be that interested in national politics and even then if he runs, Democrats will make sure at all costs that Reid doesn't end up like Daschle.