Washington Post on Georgia Turning Purple

[Skill and Chance]

Arizona maintains its "reddish" trend. The statewide GOP is still far stronger and better organized than the democratic party.  2012 should have been a ripe year for Obama to make a run at it, but he never did.  He didn't need it, but it was one state (the other being GA) that the democrats could have put some heat on the GOP. 

GA needs a few more cycles before it's considered to be a swing state at the presidential level.  Although it looks like it's going to be a GOP year (right now), watch the Senate race this year.  Can the democrats actually make a run for it?

Well, Republicans are really suffering downballot in AZ.  Part of that is the Dem-favoring maps going into effect, but Carmona only lost by about 3% and he had some serious issues as a candidate.  Perhaps AZ was uniquely cold toward Obama but more open to Dems in general?  It almost reminds me of Southern Blue Dogs.

I've actually always wondered why Flake didn't win by more in Arizona.

Might it reflect an underlying Dem trend that was masked at the presidential level because Obama sued the state?

[Sol]

Carmona certainly had a lot of faults, but he also was a very good campaigner, against someone who was much less skilled- and also much more conservative than the state (I recall some article or something that said Flake was one of the most right-wing congressmen of all time).

[jamesyons]

As a Republican I will admit that I am not happy about the trend that is occurring in many states against the Republicans but also Democrats need to stop overstating these trends because many of these trends are not huge swings towards the Democrats.  Remember that Minnesota swung heavily Republican from what happened in the 70s and 80s to how it voted in the 2000s but has leveled out a Democratic leaning swing state.  This will probably happen in Georgia because most of the increase in African American population is certain counties is simply dispersion of African Americans from inner parts of Atlanta and DeKalb counties into Gwinnett, Rockdale, Douglas, Henry, and Cobb counties.  At the same time this has happened Paulding, Forsyth, and Cherokee counties have grown exponentially and at the same time Cobb which is diversifying trended towards Romney.  Also the population of African American areas in South Georgia have lost population and the state as a whole has not had a huge increase in African American population.  Also in the future Hispanics will probably start displacing African Americans in many of inner suburbs of DeKalb and older parts of Gwinnett where they have started to cluster along I-85.  Also white flight has stopped and most heavily white areas are wealthy and probably not going to diversify very much.  Overlooked is the growth of the Asian population which although voting overwhelmingly for Obama has had great fluctuations over the last 20 years and often will vote for moderate Republicans which Republicans will start learning to nominate as they know it will be the way to win the Senate and White House and stay competitive as the country diversifies.  Lastly Fulton County swung towards Romney which is partly because of the growing white population in the city of Atlanta which has shown no signs of stopping.  Although most of these whites moving in are liberal Democratic voters they will vote at a level of 70 or 80% as opposed to the 95% that heavily African American areas give to Democrats and the turnout in these areas will decline without Obama on the ballot.

[hopper]

Lets See Georgia's recent electoral history:

1972: Blowout Win for Nixon because of a Dem Candidate who is totally out of toon with electorate and Nixon wins state by 12 points more than the national popular vote.
1976 and 1980: Carter wins because its his homestate.
1984: Reagan wins because of a Dem Candidate whose policies are New Deal policies which are 1960'sish but Reagan only wins the state only by a 3 point margin over the national popular vote.
1988: Easy win for Bush W. here and the state is 6 more points Republican than the national popular vote average. Dukakis is a bad fit for the Southeast US.
1992: Clinton takes state and the state is a swing state
1996: Dole wins state but its still a swing state
2000: Bush W. wins here big because of the white evangelical vote and shock to me Gore wasn't more competitive because he is from the South
2004: Again Bush wins here big since Kerry is not a Southerner and Bush W. gets hite evanglelical support
2008: Dem Wave Year: McCain wins here but state trends D
2012: Romney wins here but state trends D again.

Bottom line: Dems can be competitive here but not with the wrong candidate!

[Suburbia]

I could see Georgia being a potential swing state in 2016 (especially if Hillary runs), if Michelle Nunn wins the 2014 Senate race and Jason Carter wins the 2014 governor's race in a year when the president's party doesn't do well in polls, but we'll see.

If Hillary or even Warner runs and faces a Republican who can keep Georgia red, then it probably won't be a swing state. If Hillary or Warner faces a Cruz or a Santorum, she could still have a chance at Georgia, but the state is still somewhat conservative. I don't know if O'Malley or Cuomo can carry Georgia.

[sg0508]

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Interesting.

And John Warner was the big reason the Republicans didn't knock out Chuck Robb in the '94 landslide cycle, but that's off-topic.