Atlanta Journal Constitution Poll: Deal leads in Georgia by 3

[Lief 🗽]

Deal 46
Carter 43

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/05/09/ajc-poll-carter-in-tight-race-with-deal-nunn-leading-gop-senate-contenders/

[windjammer]

Carter won't win. But Deal can lose.

[ElectionsGuy]

Carter won't win. But Deal can lose.

If Carter can't win but Deal can lose, who else but Carter will win if Deal loses?

[windjammer]

Carter won't win. But Deal can lose.

If Carter can't win but Deal can lose, who else but Carter will win if Deal loses?

Sorry for not having been clearer.
I mean, Jason Carter is clearly a good candidate, but that's not enough. It's Deal who has to lose (ethic problems you know).

Sorry for the confusion

[LeBron]

It's really unfortunate that the DGA really wants to make a play at this race instead of say OH, WI or ME when the only way we can beat Deal is if he becomes his own demise to a further extent beyond the segregated prom incident and snowgate. Deal already has the 2 to 1 financial advantage on Carter and now that Carter voted to for the controversial "guns in public places" bill, his support from national donors is going to go downhill as will lower turnout among Atlanta blacks which also means Carter can no longer use that as an attack, either. Carter is simply doing it to get crossover support, but really, what Republican is going to vote for a Carter? He hurt himself by voting for that.

[Donerail]

what Republican is going to vote for a Carter?

Around 40% look favorably upon his grandfather.

[Lief 🗽]

ME is lean D, our candidate in WI can self-fund, OH we're running a random dude no one's heard of.

[Adam Griffin]

It's really unfortunate that the DGA really wants to make a play at this race instead of say OH, WI or ME when the only way we can beat Deal is if he becomes his own demise to a further extent beyond the segregated prom incident and snowgate. Deal already has the 2 to 1 financial advantage on Carter and now that Carter voted to for the controversial "guns in public places" bill, his support from national donors is going to go downhill as will lower turnout among Atlanta blacks which also means Carter can no longer use that as an attack, either. Carter is simply doing it to get crossover support, but really, what Republican is going to vote for a Carter? He hurt himself by voting for that.

I seriously doubt Carter's fundraising is going to be impacted in any tangible way as a result of that vote. The media's speculation on it has created more buzz than would ever be there otherwise. National donors are going to stick with Carter just as much as they have with Pryor and Landrieu. We should also keep in mind that having the most money in a GA gubernatorial race doesn't mean much. Roy Barnes raised several million more in 2002 than Perdue did. In 2010, Barnes narrowly raised the most again - against Deal - but still lost.

Also, not to be racesque here, but a very large chunk of the black midterm vote in GA a) turns out reliably and b) is a fairly low-information voting bloc. Keep in mind that most people aren't paying attention right now and I certainly don't expect Deal to begin attacking Carter for supporting a bill he signed.

Deal is also doing piss-poor in polling, with Carter consistently within the MoE for several months. This poll - showing him at 46% - is the best poll he's had all year, but it's still several points below his running average in 2013/before Carter entered the race. The fact that there is the opportunity to pick up both a Senate seat and the Governor's mansion makes this a much riper target than OH, ME or WI.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We will win Ohio, Kasich is under 50 percent and the last PPP had it a dead heat, which seems more likely than that Survey poll along with MI and FL, Deal is ripe for picking off.

[pbrower2a]

44% approval is usually on the margin of winning for an elected incumbent. Add the usual 6% that a competent campaigner gets against the average opponent, and I see Deal winning 50-49. Ethical issues can take Deal down.

[Flake]

We will win Ohio, Kasich is under 50 percent and the last PPP had it a dead heat, which seems more likely than that Survey poll along with MI and FL, Deal is ripe for picking off.

lol

Carter won't win. But Deal can lose.

If Carter can't win but Deal can lose, who else but Carter will win if Deal loses?

Sorry for not having been clearer.
I mean, Jason Carter is clearly a good candidate, but that's not enough. It's Deal who has to lose (ethic problems you know).

Sorry for the confusion

^^