AK: Moore Info. (R): Sullivan ahead in primary, trails Begich

[Miles]

Article. This was for Sullivan's campaign.

Primary

Sullivan- 38%
Treadwell- 22%
Miller- 12%

General

Begich (D)- 44%
Sullivan (R)- 42%

[windjammer]

Good pollster?

[Tender Branson]

Good pollster?

Doesn't matter.

One of Tender Branson's rules: Never trust Alaska polls !

[Maxwell]

Good pollster?

We'll certainly find out. The momentum does seem to be on Sullivans side atm, not sure I can see Treadwell turning this around. Then again, Alaska polls lol.

However, I think Treadwell might be a better canidate for the general because the Alaska Republican Party isn't great and he's a self-funder.

[windjammer]

Good pollster?

Doesn't matter.

One of Tender Branson's rules: Never trust Alaska polls !

If only an another  Tender Branson's rules could be: Never trust polls with decimals .

-------

Good pollster?

We'll certainly find out. The momentum does seem to be on Sullivans side atm, not sure I can see Treadwell turning this around. Then again, Alaska polls lol.

However, I think Treadwell might be a better canidate for the general because the Alaska Republican Party isn't great and he's a self-funder.

To be honest, the results seem to be accurate with the reality. And Sullivan is seriously scaring me. Treadwell seems however be a flawed candidate, he definitely struggles to raise cash, and even he can self fund, I believe the worst threat to Begich, that's Sullivan, but that's my point of view .

[Lief 🗽]

Every Alaska poll is garbage. We won't know who wins here until sometime in mid November.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Every Alaska poll is garbage.

Indeed.

[SPC]

Every Alaska poll is garbage.

Indeed.

The only two polls in the final months were by Research 2000 and Rasmussen Reports, both of which are known to be garbage. PPP got the 2010 race wrong due to overestimating support for McAdams, which could have just been Democrats choosing Murkowski as the lesser evil.

[Keystone Phil]

GUYS GUYS IT'S AN ALOLSKA POLL!!!

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Every Alaska poll is garbage.

Indeed.

The only two polls in the final months were by Research 2000 and Rasmussen Reports, both of which are known to be garbage. PPP got the 2010 race wrong due to overestimating support for McAdams, which could have just been Democrats choosing Murkowski as the lesser evil.

Huh?  My point is that most of the 2008 polls were junk because they exaggerated Begich's performance.  How this election will play out in the end, I have no idea.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If we hold AK, we hold the Senate, it is the firewall state.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

That is a rather dangerosu firewall cosnidering how erratic and hard to poll the state is.

[SPC]

Every Alaska poll is garbage.

Indeed.

The only two polls in the final months were by Research 2000 and Rasmussen Reports, both of which are known to be garbage. PPP got the 2010 race wrong due to overestimating support for McAdams, which could have just been Democrats choosing Murkowski as the lesser evil.

Huh?  My point is that most of the 2008 polls were junk because they exaggerated Begich's performance.  How this election will play out in the end, I have no idea.

If you looked at the firms that conducted such polls, one could also conclude that an alternative hypothesis would be that the 2008 polls were junk because they were conducted by junk polling firms. Given that Research 2000 has been exposed as a fraud and Rasmussen has had a horrendous track record in the last two elections, plus the polls were not substantially off in other Alaska elections, I believe that the latter hypothesis may have greater merit.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That is a rather dangerosu firewall cosnidering how erratic and hard to poll the state is.

The polls were  on the money with Murkowski winning in 2010 with that if fy write in campaign.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

That is a rather dangerosu firewall cosnidering how erratic and hard to poll the state is.

The polls were in the money with Murkowski winning in 2010 with that if fy write in campaign.

There have also not been that many instances to have been wrong since for a long time the delegation wasn't even close to competative. I recall though that polling underestimated not just Stevens but also Young as well in one of those years and some of the polls in 2010 were off, even PPP as said earlier. It is not impossible to get some close to accurate results, but the geography and other factors still add some difficulty, which is the point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC is the tipping pt state, but Landrieu winning 50+ on election day or Begich shining as well as adding MI closes the Senate out for us.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

That is a much more reliable firewall then one with Alaska.

[IceSpear]

Every Alaska poll is garbage.

Indeed.

Research 2000 was a fradulent polling firm that shut down after being exposed by Nate Silver.

[Nichlemn]

Every Alaska poll is garbage.

Indeed.

It didn't help that a lot of the later "polls" were conducted by fraudulent firm Research 2000.

[pbrower2a]

Alaska is so regionally splintered that it is hard to get valid samples.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I'm pretty skeptical of this poll, like most recent polls I've seen.

[Lief 🗽]

I'm pretty skeptical of this poll, like most recent polls I've seen.

Well most recent polls you've seen have had Democrats leading, so it's not surprising that you'd refuse to believe them.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I'm pretty skeptical of this poll, like most recent polls I've seen.

Well most recent polls you've seen have had Democrats leading, so it's not surprising that you'd refuse to believe them.

Uh, no.  I've become skeptical of polls in general, after the polls in 2012 were all over the place.  It looks like this year isn't much better.

[Lief 🗽]

They weren't all over the place in 2012, what are you talking about? The polls were mostly right in 2012, maybe underestimating Democrats by a small amount.