NBC-Marist: Pryor up 11, KY tied, Perdue leads Nunn by 4 in GA

[IceSpear]

I find it hard believe Pryor is ahead at all, let alone up eleven.

Best case he's tied... realistically, he's five to seven back.

Democrats should cut him lose, and try and prop up Larry Pressler in South Dakota.

[moderatevoter]

Lol, IceSpear. Love the gif.

[Devils30]

Cotton has to be a bit nervous, while most of the other races across the country have stayed even or moved slightly red the past six months this one has moved bluer. Still it's gonna be close but I figured Cotton would be up by this point.

[Free Bird]

I've seen the internals, and there were 8% more Democrats in the Pryor poll. Clearly, it was skewed their way, but also saw him with more support from Independents. There is also the fact that they surveyed RVs, not LVs. LV polls, like Magellan, show a very different story

Are we really going to go through this BS again?!

AR has a D+10 registration advantage, they just don't vote for Democrats at the National level. Trust the data, not your gut.

Just because there are more doesn't mean they are all going out to vote, particularly in a midterm. I don't trust RV polls. That's that.

[LeBron]

I find it hard believe Pryor is ahead at all, let alone up eleven.

Best case he's tied... realistically, he's five to seven back.

Democrats should cut him lose, and try and prop up Larry Pressler in South Dakota.

Considering how Pressler is actually stealing votes from Rounds now that he's got himself in a scandal, that's not a bad idea. Weiland's only trailing by single digits and his fundraising is going surprisingly well, so I would say he's more favored at this point than Tennant or Pryor.

And I hate to say it, but MSNBC is way off. I was watching The Cycle earlier today and they were mentioning Pryor is so far up because Pryor has managed to paint Cotton as an out-of-touch, hawkish, Benghazi conspirator that wants to raise the eligibility age. He's improved since then, but no way is he up by double digits and I still consider it a tossup since NYT had it at 46-43 Pryor and Magellan had it at 46-43 Cotton. And either way, most undecided should break for Cotton given his strong war chest and Snyder liberals will either just not vote or vote for the Green. Pryor's by no means safe and thank God.

The thing that makes nonsense though is Pryor is leading by 11, but Nunn trails Broun?! Not seeing it. The other matchups look about right and I'm hoping Kingston is the one who's in a runoff against Perdue (if it's not Broun or Gingrey). He's win the carryover Gingrey/Broun vote, has the most money (even if he's flopping with it) and the Tea Party could recruit behind him easily against Perdue and the same really can't be said about Handel. Obama's approval really isn't bad for GA either and Nunn can't avoid the Democratic label the whole race, but if Kingston can win the primary, it's smooth sailing for Nunn. Let's not forget Kingston's "child janitor" comments or being a war on woman Washington outsider.

Bevin really messed up big time to and McConnell should have no problem escaping his primary. And it really sucks for Grimes if McConnell is that close to 50%. He'll probably end up winning 51-47 in November if I were to guess.

[Person Man]

I guess the most you can get from the polling, as a whole, is that its too soon to tell if this election is going to be a wash or if this is going to be a R year where 2016 is set up as lean R. I mean, the Republicans still supposed to absorb the discontent quite nicely until this time in 2006, right?

[free my dawg]

I've seen the internals, and there were 8% more Democrats in the Pryor poll. Clearly, it was skewed their way, but also saw him with more support from Independents. There is also the fact that they surveyed RVs, not LVs. LV polls, like Magellan, show a very different story

Are we really going to go through this BS again?!

AR has a D+10 registration advantage, they just don't vote for Democrats at the National level. Trust the data, not your gut.

Just because there are more doesn't mean they are all going out to vote, particularly in a midterm. I don't trust RV polls. That's that.

Okay, let's be real here. You don't distrust this poll because it's an RV poll, you don't trust it because you don't like the result.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've seen the internals, and there were 8% more Democrats in the Pryor poll. Clearly, it was skewed their way, but also saw him with more support from Independents. There is also the fact that they surveyed RVs, not LVs. LV polls, like Magellan, show a very different story

Are we really going to go through this BS again?!

AR has a D+10 registration advantage, they just don't vote for Democrats at the National level. Trust the data, not your gut.

Just because there are more doesn't mean they are all going out to vote, particularly in a midterm. I don't trust RV polls. That's that.

No it doesn't and that's my point. In states like AR, D+x registration doesn't reflect how a state is going to vote. Just saying the poll is rubbish because it has more Democrats reflects that the state has more Democrats.

It's way too early to trust likely voter polls anyway.

[Free Bird]

I've seen the internals, and there were 8% more Democrats in the Pryor poll. Clearly, it was skewed their way, but also saw him with more support from Independents. There is also the fact that they surveyed RVs, not LVs. LV polls, like Magellan, show a very different story

Are we really going to go through this BS again?!

AR has a D+10 registration advantage, they just don't vote for Democrats at the National level. Trust the data, not your gut.

Just because there are more doesn't mean they are all going out to vote, particularly in a midterm. I don't trust RV polls. That's that.

No it doesn't and that's my point. In states like AR, D+x registration doesn't reflect how a state is going to vote. Just saying the poll is rubbish because it has more Democrats reflects that the state has more Democrats.

It's way too early to trust likely voter polls anyway.

I wait till the August polls to start compiling my "official" predictions

[windjammer]

I have been talking to  people over the past few years, and they are tired of Pryor, and they hold him with Obama.

You've been talking to a scientific sample of a broad cross-section of Arkansans?  I'm impressed!

I have not, but, I have been talking to the olds for my state, the one's who will vote more, and they are pissed.  

Ha, this is wrong.  I do not see a 18 point gap between Pryor and Ross.  I don't see something like this happening.  I have been talking to  people over the past few years, and they are tired of Pryor, and they hold him with Obama.

Jerryarkansas,
I can tell you a lot of French people who thought that Sarkozy would have been reelected in 2012, even if he was definitely trailing Hollande. I can tell you the same thing for some other election, where some Royal supporters thought she would win in 2007,...

And yes, this poll is wrong but your arguments are wrong too.

I know my state.  If pryor wins, I will admit I was wrong, but until then, I hold he will lose

You have not only said said that Pryor will lose, you have said he'sgoing Blanche.
I'm saying this race will be extremely competitive, I don't rule out a Cotton win at all (that's clearly a possibility, 50/50 right now I guess).
But your analysis of this senate race has always been ultra party-line, and sorry, but skewed too.
Pryor isn't going Blanche.
Your analysis of this race is totally wrong if Cotton fails to destroy Pryor. And that's likely. He will never win by a bigger margin than 10.

[Tender Branson]

There's a good enough chance that Pryor wins this in a landslide, if he manages to distance himself enough from the Obama-brand and establish a more localized popular AR-version of himself.

I could really see him crushing the political novice Cotton in the end ...

[windjammer]

There's a good enough chance that Pryor wins this in a landslide, if he manages to distance himself enough from the Obama-brand and establish a more localized popular AR-version of himself.

I could really see him crushing the political novice Cotton in the end ...

Tender Branson, don't be so optimistic, tt would surprise me a lot if he crush Cotton. This race will be extremely competitive until the end.

Although Pryor, if he wins, could really thank Cotton, who definitely isn't a good fit for Arkansas. Griffin would have been much more difficult to beat.

[Free Bird]

I have been talking to  people over the past few years, and they are tired of Pryor, and they hold him with Obama.

You've been talking to a scientific sample of a broad cross-section of Arkansans?  I'm impressed!

I have not, but, I have been talking to the olds for my state, the one's who will vote more, and they are pissed.  

Ha, this is wrong.  I do not see a 18 point gap between Pryor and Ross.  I don't see something like this happening.  I have been talking to  people over the past few years, and they are tired of Pryor, and they hold him with Obama.

Jerryarkansas,
I can tell you a lot of French people who thought that Sarkozy would have been reelected in 2012, even if he was definitely trailing Hollande. I can tell you the same thing for some other election, where some Royal supporters thought she would win in 2007,...

And yes, this poll is wrong but your arguments are wrong too.

I know my state.  If pryor wins, I will admit I was wrong, but until then, I hold he will lose

You have not only said said that Pryor will lose, you have said he'sgoing Blanche.
I'm saying this race will be extremely competitive, I don't rule out a Cotton win at all (that's clearly a possibility, 50/50 right now I guess).
But your analysis of this senate race has always been ultra party-line, and sorry, but skewed too.
Pryor isn't going Blanche.
Your analysis of this race is totally wrong if Cotton fails to destroy Pryor. And that's likely. He will never win by a bigger margin than 10.

But the mirror won't apply to Pryor like this crap is suggesting. This isn't even confirmation bias, this is logic. There is no way a race this close can suddenly become lopsided. I am not saying Pryor is Blanching (love how that is a verb now), but I AM saying that we shouldn't start tying it up either way.  If I had a confirmation bias, I would listen to Dick Morris.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Rubbish.  There's no way Pryor is THAT far ahead, even if he is leading.

I think he is, because Cotton is collapsing.

This bodes ill for Republicans in general, because the idea of the Republicans being so extreme hasn't sunken in yet elsewhere. When the GOP has to campaign on bad ideas, they'll lose support.

How is Cotton collapsing?  The most recent polls I saw had him in a dead heat with Pryor.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Not to mention that a poll from your precious, beloved PPP only a few days earlier had Pryor leading by only 1 point.  This poll is one of registered voters, not likely voters, which probably accounts for the high D numbers.

[windjammer]

Not to mention that a poll from your precious PPP only a few days earlier had Pryor leading by only 1 point.

Seriously oldiesfreak, have you read my posts?

I have said this poll is F-L-A-W-E-D

[DrScholl]

There have been at least three polls with Pryor up big, a few more with him by 1-3 and the worse one for him was a poll from a Republican pollster that had him down by three, and even the NRCC released an internal where the race was tied. All of that indicates that Pryor is in a good position right now.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

There's a good enough chance that Pryor wins this in a landslide

If he highlights the fact the he supported a state minimum wage increase, and covers up the fact that he opposed a federal minimum wage increase, there is a very good chance of it.

[windjammer]

There's a good enough chance that Pryor wins this in a landslide

If he highlights the fact the he supported a state minimum wage increase, and covers up the fact that he opposed a federal minimum wage increase, there is a very good chance of it.

Would you vote for him Bandit?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

There's a good enough chance that Pryor wins this in a landslide

If he highlights the fact the he supported a state minimum wage increase, and covers up the fact that he opposed a federal minimum wage increase, there is a very good chance of it.

Would you vote for him Bandit?

Not now, because he opposed the federal minimum wage increase. Of course, he'd still be better than Cotton.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Georgia Senator by Marist College on 2014-05-04

Summary: D: 41%, R: 45%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Arkansas Senator by Marist College on 2014-05-04

Summary: D: 51%, R: 40%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Kentucky Senator by Marist College on 2014-05-06

Summary: D: 45%, R: 46%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details