Does this mean her floor is equal to Obama's floor or equal to Obama's performance?
In terms of the popular vote I'd argue that both Clinton's floor and ceiling are further apart than any other prospective Democrat, because she will likely drive up base turnout from both parties.
At the lowest she'll likely get the 47% Romney got in 2012, while at her ceiling I'd guess she'd get roughly 55-56% of the popular vote.
No Democrat has gotten less than 48% of the vote since 1996 that seems to be the floor for Democratic nominees. I can't see any Democratic nominee getting less than 200 EV in this day and age and usually end up around 230-250 EV if they end up losing. And no way she wins 55-56% of the vote with how polarized things are her ceiling is probably around 53-54% PV and that's a stretch.
There is a possibility for sampling bias with the argument that no Democrat has gotten less than 48% since 1996. It's limited to five elections, three which favored Democrats if there's anything to the third term curse, with the rest having George W Bush as the Republican nominee.
