2016 tipping point state

[Mister Mets]

It's probably not going to be one of the Romney states.

Florida was the closest Obama state, but there was a reasonable argument that it's the one swing state where Clinton can have significant improvements, due to increasingly favorable demographics for the party and the presence of Southern white voters who went against Obama in massive numbers. It's also a big state, so it has a better chance of being a tipping point than any other state. On the other hand, with Jeb and Rubio, it may be the likeliest home state of the Republican nominee.

If Republicans do better in Ohio than Florida, that brings them to 224 electoral votes.
Add Virginia, and that's 237 electoral votes.
It doesn't matter if the next state is New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado or Pennsylvania (or many combinations of these states), as Florida would still be the tipping point under many different scenarios (especially if you think demographic trends in Virginia will make that more favorable to Democrats than Iowa or Pennsylvania).