Are these state alignments THE permanent ones?

[Free Bird]

I've been thinking about how much the map has changed over 100 years. Vermont went from a red stronghold to the bluest of the blue, and Texas the opposite. But are these permanent? What's to say thinks wont' have a major dice roll again? Will any major allignment changes happen within our lifetime? Could Minnesota or Hawaii become the next Wyoming, or maybe Alaska become the next Hawaii? Could West Virginia maybe snap back into its bleeding blue status?

[The Free North]

Looking at past history, since the Civil War, we have seen shifts in the party/state alignment switch in 30-50 year periods.

The new alignment finished up in 2000, so it should last for the forceable future

[pbrower2a]

Based on behavior of the states beginning in 1992:

All 6 Republican
5 Republican
4 republican, 2 Democratic (but dark green if Obama got crushed by 10% or larger margins twice)
Even split, 3-3
4 Democratic
5 Democratic
All 6 Democratic

Democrats have gotten at least 243 electoral votes (by the 2012 count, which is the least generous count) in all of these elections, so it is difficult to make any distinctions among states in medium red.

Since 1984 Democrats have been steadily picking up "Rockefeller Republicans" in the Northeast and Far West while getting the fast-growing middle-class Hispanic and Asian vote, and Republicans have been steadily picking up the Southern poor white vote.  The "Rockefeller Republicans" and middle-class Hispanics and Asians have much in common (secularism, respect for formal education), but have huge cultural divides with Southern poor whites. The "Rockefeller Republicans" are a small part of the national electorate, but they were enough to allow Republicans to win some statewide elections in comparatively liberal states in the 1960s and 1970s.

In the 1980s Reagan and (the first time) the elder Bush won landslides with coalitions that included "Rockefeller Republicans" and southern poor whites. Coalitions that include incompatible interests invariably break, and the coalition that allowed Reagan-era landslides just could not be maintained.

The trick for the Democrats to keep the White House  is to keep getting 52-48 or 53-47 wins of the popular vote. Even 55-45 splits imply the grafting together of incompatible interests in the coalition.