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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2016 tipping point state
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Author Topic: 2016 tipping point state  (Read 2815 times)
Devils30
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« on: May 07, 2014, 05:49:45 pm »

It's a bit too early for this stuff in general but what do people think? Personally I am going with Florida. Obama was terrible in FL and still won it and polls have good news for Hillary as she seems to be above her national numbers here. GOP has more room to grow in OH IA CO.
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Never
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« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2014, 06:12:09 pm »

Well, it probably depends on the candidates, but I believe that we can have a general idea right now.
For the winning Republican, the tipping point state will probably be CO. For the Democrats, the tipping point state will probably be VA. Although Hillary Clinton currently seems to be doing well in FL, it is plausible that she could win the election without that state. The same seems to be the case with OH. That being said, VA will probably be the tipping point state, as it has a more favorable environment for Democrats than other swing states.
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marty
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« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2014, 10:57:00 pm »

there will not be a tipping point state in the landslide that will be 2016
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2014, 11:37:43 pm »

Everyone needs to stop treating Hillary as inevitable. It all depends on who the candidate is
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Devils30
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« Reply #4 on: May 08, 2014, 07:06:42 pm »

Nate Cohn had a good piece in the NYT today pretty much saying what I am about FL. Every election has a tipping point, no matter how much of a blowout.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #5 on: May 09, 2014, 10:30:29 am »

It's probably not going to be one of the Romney states.

Florida was the closest Obama state, but there was a reasonable argument that it's the one swing state where Clinton can have significant improvements, due to increasingly favorable demographics for the party and the presence of Southern white voters who went against Obama in massive numbers. It's also a big state, so it has a better chance of being a tipping point than any other state. On the other hand, with Jeb and Rubio, it may be the likeliest home state of the Republican nominee.

If Republicans do better in Ohio than Florida, that brings them to 224 electoral votes.
Add Virginia, and that's 237 electoral votes.
It doesn't matter if the next state is New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado or Pennsylvania (or many combinations of these states), as Florida would still be the tipping point under many different scenarios (especially if you think demographic trends in Virginia will make that more favorable to Democrats than Iowa or Pennsylvania).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: May 09, 2014, 07:20:18 pm »

Pennsylvania is most likely. It was close to being the tipping point state in 2012, and if a state like Florida, Colorado, Ohio, or Virginia surpasses it in D voting for President, then Pennsylvania is most likely due to its electoral size.

Tipping-points back to 1976:

2012  Colorado
2008  Iowa
2004  Ohio
2000  Florida
1996  Pennsylvania 
1992  Tennessee
1988  Michigan
1984  Michigan
1980  Illinois
1976  Wisconsin

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