NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:34:42 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
  NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC)  (Read 5195 times)
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,521
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: April 23, 2014, 05:38:46 PM »

This looks pretty awful. How is Cassidy only getting 18%? Even in the jungle primary, and how is Pryor up 10 on Cotton when McConnell is up 1 on Grimes? This is inconsistent with everything we've seen so far. Although NC and KY polls look OK.

I think there have just been too many polls in a row now to discount that Pryor has rebounded.  Even if we have reservations about some of the polls, this has been showing up in Lean D territory in half of them and no one has Cotton up anymore.  The same is true in KY, which shows up as a toss-up every time despite the state's lean.

My theory is that AR/KY have a lot more people benefiting from Obamacare than nationally because they both have large uninsured populations and well-functioning exchanges.  This local success may be propping up the Dem brand there relative to earlier Obama era numbers.
Logged
GaussLaw
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,279
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: April 23, 2014, 07:08:21 PM »

^Interesting thought.  I'd like to see ACA favorable/unfavorable ratings in Arkansas and Kentucky.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: April 23, 2014, 07:38:29 PM »

^Interesting thought.  I'd like to see ACA favorable/unfavorable ratings in Arkansas and Kentucky.

AR: 29/62
KY: 35/55

Logged
GaussLaw
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,279
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: April 23, 2014, 08:29:17 PM »

^Interesting thought.  I'd like to see ACA favorable/unfavorable ratings in Arkansas and Kentucky.

AR: 29/62
KY: 35/55



Then how can "Skill and Chance"'s arguments work then?  Maybe is it that people who liked the ACA felt more strongly about it now, enough to say they will vote D and would pass a likely voter screen?
Logged
Simfan34
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,744
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.90, S: 4.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: April 23, 2014, 09:59:26 PM »

William Kristol writes that the polls' results seem bogus due to the disingenuous responses to the presidential vote question in number 12:



Looking at these results, one becomes pretty inclined to declare this a rather bad poll. As Kristol rightly points a poll that shows Obama one point behind in Arkansas, when carried Arkansas in 2012 by 24 points. Similarly, the Kentucky sample is +3 Romney when reality was +23. The Louisiana sample is +3 Obama in a state Obama lost by 17, and the North Carolina sample is +7 Obama in a state he lost by 3, he notes. Feel free to dismiss it as "right wing media" but it was noteworthy enough for the BBC to mention it (which is where I read it first)

Nate Cohn writes that this can be explained by the "well-known bias toward the victor in post-election surveys. Respondents who voted for the loser often say that they don’t remember whom they supported, or say they supported someone else". This seems rather far-fetched to me however, considering polls show Romney victories in hypothetical re-votes and that the President is considerably underwater in the opinion polls, particularly in these states. It would seem the results of this poll, then, cannot amount for much.
Logged
Talleyrand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,517


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: April 23, 2014, 10:14:02 PM »

Why does Atlas see Landrieu pulling off a win or even likely to do so? It would probably require a Dem wave for her to hold on, and the empirical data as of late has shown that she's in worse shape than Pryor.
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: April 23, 2014, 10:19:59 PM »
« Edited: April 23, 2014, 10:27:40 PM by RogueBeaver »

Landrieu's skill, money, business support, etc. make her tough to beat. Though I'm cautiously optimistic.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,875


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: April 23, 2014, 10:48:33 PM »

William Kristol writes that the polls' results seem bogus due to the disingenuous responses to the presidential vote question in number 12:



Looking at these results, one becomes pretty inclined to declare this a rather bad poll. As Kristol rightly points a poll that shows Obama one point behind in Arkansas, when carried Arkansas in 2012 by 24 points. Similarly, the Kentucky sample is +3 Romney when reality was +23. The Louisiana sample is +3 Obama in a state Obama lost by 17, and the North Carolina sample is +7 Obama in a state he lost by 3, he notes. Feel free to dismiss it as "right wing media" but it was noteworthy enough for the BBC to mention it (which is where I read it first)

Nate Cohn writes that this can be explained by the "well-known bias toward the victor in post-election surveys. Respondents who voted for the loser often say that they don’t remember whom they supported, or say they supported someone else". This seems rather far-fetched to me however, considering polls show Romney victories in hypothetical re-votes and that the President is considerably underwater in the opinion polls, particularly in these states. It would seem the results of this poll, then, cannot amount for much.

The presidential vote question was asked of all adults. The 2014 election questions were asked of only registered voters.
Logged
MalaspinaGold
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 987


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: April 23, 2014, 11:21:53 PM »

William Kristol writes that the polls' results seem bogus due to the disingenuous responses to the presidential vote question in number 12:



Looking at these results, one becomes pretty inclined to declare this a rather bad poll. As Kristol rightly points a poll that shows Obama one point behind in Arkansas, when carried Arkansas in 2012 by 24 points. Similarly, the Kentucky sample is +3 Romney when reality was +23. The Louisiana sample is +3 Obama in a state Obama lost by 17, and the North Carolina sample is +7 Obama in a state he lost by 3, he notes. Feel free to dismiss it as "right wing media" but it was noteworthy enough for the BBC to mention it (which is where I read it first)

Nate Cohn writes that this can be explained by the "well-known bias toward the victor in post-election surveys. Respondents who voted for the loser often say that they don’t remember whom they supported, or say they supported someone else". This seems rather far-fetched to me however, considering polls show Romney victories in hypothetical re-votes and that the President is considerably underwater in the opinion polls, particularly in these states. It would seem the results of this poll, then, cannot amount for much.

The presidential vote question was asked of all adults. The 2014 election questions were asked of only registered voters.

You have to admit that it is a bit strange to see Romney in the twenties and thirties in states that he won.
If only 60% of the population votes, and someone gets 60% of the vote, they have just got 36% of the total vote.

As for the rest... I've read that post-election, when you ask someone who they voted for, a significant proportion of people who voted for the loser will say they voted for the winner. Something to keep in mind.
Logged
Simfan34
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,744
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.90, S: 4.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: April 24, 2014, 01:03:22 AM »

William Kristol writes that the polls' results seem bogus due to the disingenuous responses to the presidential vote question in number 12:



Looking at these results, one becomes pretty inclined to declare this a rather bad poll. As Kristol rightly points a poll that shows Obama one point behind in Arkansas, when carried Arkansas in 2012 by 24 points. Similarly, the Kentucky sample is +3 Romney when reality was +23. The Louisiana sample is +3 Obama in a state Obama lost by 17, and the North Carolina sample is +7 Obama in a state he lost by 3, he notes. Feel free to dismiss it as "right wing media" but it was noteworthy enough for the BBC to mention it (which is where I read it first)

Nate Cohn writes that this can be explained by the "well-known bias toward the victor in post-election surveys. Respondents who voted for the loser often say that they don’t remember whom they supported, or say they supported someone else". This seems rather far-fetched to me however, considering polls show Romney victories in hypothetical re-votes and that the President is considerably underwater in the opinion polls, particularly in these states. It would seem the results of this poll, then, cannot amount for much.

The presidential vote question was asked of all adults. The 2014 election questions were asked of only registered voters.

You have to admit that it is a bit strange to see Romney in the twenties and thirties in states that he won.
If only 60% of the population votes, and someone gets 60% of the vote, they have just got 36% of the total vote.

As for the rest... I've read that post-election, when you ask someone who they voted for, a significant proportion of people who voted for the loser will say they voted for the winner. Something to keep in mind.

I mentioned this.
Logged
MalaspinaGold
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 987


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: April 24, 2014, 01:05:16 AM »

William Kristol writes that the polls' results seem bogus due to the disingenuous responses to the presidential vote question in number 12:



Looking at these results, one becomes pretty inclined to declare this a rather bad poll. As Kristol rightly points a poll that shows Obama one point behind in Arkansas, when carried Arkansas in 2012 by 24 points. Similarly, the Kentucky sample is +3 Romney when reality was +23. The Louisiana sample is +3 Obama in a state Obama lost by 17, and the North Carolina sample is +7 Obama in a state he lost by 3, he notes. Feel free to dismiss it as "right wing media" but it was noteworthy enough for the BBC to mention it (which is where I read it first)

Nate Cohn writes that this can be explained by the "well-known bias toward the victor in post-election surveys. Respondents who voted for the loser often say that they don’t remember whom they supported, or say they supported someone else". This seems rather far-fetched to me however, considering polls show Romney victories in hypothetical re-votes and that the President is considerably underwater in the opinion polls, particularly in these states. It would seem the results of this poll, then, cannot amount for much.

The presidential vote question was asked of all adults. The 2014 election questions were asked of only registered voters.

You have to admit that it is a bit strange to see Romney in the twenties and thirties in states that he won.
If only 60% of the population votes, and someone gets 60% of the vote, they have just got 36% of the total vote.

As for the rest... I've read that post-election, when you ask someone who they voted for, a significant proportion of people who voted for the loser will say they voted for the winner. Something to keep in mind.

Well, if you are looking at it that way (and you made a very good point), then it would be reasonable to conclude that in reality the Republican Senate candidates are probably leading in all four states that were polled, because registered voters might say that they voted for Obama even if this was not the case.
How you draw that conclusion I have no clue...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: April 24, 2014, 01:39:27 AM »

Simfan, take a look at my "MEGA election 2012 turnout chart":

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=181934.0

Or if you prefer, Prof. McDonald's blog of turnout data (he uses 2011 data for his calculations, whereas I already used the 2012 data from the Census Bureau):

http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2012G.html

...

AR only had 48% turnout in 2012, relative to it's adult population (VAP).

KY had 53%, LA 57% and NC had 60% turnout.

Which means that if you have a sample of 1000 adults, where about half has not voted and 60% of those who voted, then you only get some 30% overall for Romney.

Of course, Obama's percentage is higher than it should be. Why is that ?

Maybe because Southern people are simply liers in these polls: Remember the polls in AR that showed Obama down by only 10-15 points ahead of the election ? Then, in the secrecy of the voting booth, those Southerners are returning to their redneck-voting-behaviour and voted for Romney by over 20 points ...

Or people simply don't remember and give false answers, or don't care. And these subsamples usually have high MoE too.

SurveyUSA often has very strange crosstabs too, but the overall topline is often very accurate.
Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,512
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: April 24, 2014, 07:05:11 AM »

Seriously, Pryor isn't leading by 10. By 3-4 would probably more accurate.
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,628
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: May 02, 2014, 07:32:05 AM »

New Poll: Arkansas Senator by New York Times on 2014-04-15

Summary: D: 46%, R: 36%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,628
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: May 02, 2014, 07:34:53 AM »
« Edited: May 02, 2014, 07:42:39 AM by Dave Leip »

New Poll: Kentucky Senator by New York Times on 2014-04-15

Summary: D: 43%, R: 44%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,628
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: May 02, 2014, 07:36:42 AM »

New Poll: Louisiana Senator by New York Times on 2014-04-15

Summary: D: 42%, R: 18%, U: 27%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,628
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: May 02, 2014, 07:39:59 AM »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by New York Times on 2014-04-15

Summary: D: 42%, R: 40%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.258 seconds with 14 queries.