IA-Suffolk: Braley (D) with the lead, Ernst leads GOP primary

[Tender Branson]

GOP primary:

Ernst 25, Jacobs 23, Clovis 7, Whitaker 4, Schaben 1

GE:

Braley 37, Jacobs 31
Braley 38, Ernst 30
Braley 38, Whitaker 27
Braley 38, Clovis 25

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/Suffolk_Iowa_040914.pdf

[Maxwell]

Too many undecideds, plus Whitaker is way too far away for me to take this seriously.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Junk poll (Suffolk)

[DrScholl]

No traction here, not even a Republican lead with a lot of undecideds.

[LeBron]

Universities just love their decimals! And pretty embarrassing to that nearly 2/3rds of voters don't even know when the primary is.   Voter registration looks pretty spot on, I'm kind of skeptical of the age numbers, but yeah, any poll that has more people trustworthy of Fox News than MSNBC by 21 points is a junkie.

With the recent high boost in name recognition though for Ernst, all of the endorsements she's getting from state and outside politicians and organizations and her strong fundraising numbers and good connections to Iowa farmers and military members, she's probably in the lead by now over Jacobs. No question.

It will only be a matter of whether or not Jacobs, Whitaker or the Rush Limbaugh of Iowa can keep her from breaking the 35% threshold in which case it would just be another 11 days before Ernst would be selected at the crony convention, so it's all but guaranteed Ernst will get the nomination. Clovis will certainly steal votes away from Ernst on the crazy train side, but not as many votes as Whitaker will sweep from Jacobs. So assuming it's Ernst, still likely D and the gaffes she's prone to make will completely overshadow Braley's by the end of the summer.

[Vosem]

Wasn't the state organization of the Republican Party of Iowa overtaken by Paulists at some point? (Pardon me if there was a recent reconquista). If so, Whitaker could be favored at a convention.

[moderatevoter]

Didn't Branstad force them out?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Wasn't the state organization of the Republican Party of Iowa overtaken by Paulists at some point? (Pardon me if there was a recent reconquista). If so, Whitaker could be favored at a convention.

I believe you're thinking of Minnesota.

[publicunofficial]

Wasn't the state organization of the Republican Party of Iowa overtaken by Paulists at some point? (Pardon me if there was a recent reconquista). If so, Whitaker could be favored at a convention.

I believe you're thinking of Minnesota.

No, Minnesota was overtaken by Bachmann types.