GA-Landmark/Rosetta Stone: Nunn leads Handel, trails others. Perdue strongest

[JRP1994]

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/local/poll-nunn-close-race-5-republicans-senate/nfQyZ/

GOP showing more strength?

[Miles]

Eh, having that many undecideds is kinda suspect.

[Tender Branson]

I'd wait for a SurveyUSA general election poll in GA, it's probably the best indicator of where the race stands right now.

But it's possible that the Dems end up with only 45 seats after the election, if everything's going bad for them: losing MT, SD, WV are for sure now. Losing AK, CO, IA, MI, AR, LA, NC are all possible as of right now. Reps hold KY and GA looks likely too. That would be a loss of 10 seats.

[Adam Griffin]

I don't recall Landmark being that great of a pollster, but who knows. Only Perdue is outside the MoE (and just barely), so this indicates what we've been seeing all along. Also, there are decimal points.

[morgieb]

I would be very surprised if we lose 10 seats. The climate would need to be pretty bad for that, and right now it's only slightly unfavourable (plus awful terrain).

[Adam Griffin]

I would be very surprised if we lose 10 seats. The climate would need to be pretty bad for that, and right now it's only slightly unfavourable (plus awful terrain).

To be fair, though, it's not that the climate will be so bad this year, but that the climate in 2008 was so good that we wound up winning seats we probably wouldn't have otherwise.

[Skill and Chance]

I would be very surprised if we lose 10 seats. The climate would need to be pretty bad for that, and right now it's only slightly unfavourable (plus awful terrain).

To be fair, though, it's not that the climate will be so bad this year, but that the climate in 2008 was so good that we wound up winning seats we probably wouldn't have otherwise.

Well kind of, but how many of the at-risk seats were because of 2008 gains?  Franken and Merkley aren't particularly vulnerable.  Shaheen probably isn't either.  And Warner surely didn't need the 2008 wave to win.  Among the toss up races, we could say Begich and maybe Hagan only won because it was 2008.  The rest were already incumbents back then.

[morgieb]

I would be very surprised if we lose 10 seats. The climate would need to be pretty bad for that, and right now it's only slightly unfavourable (plus awful terrain).

To be fair, though, it's not that the climate will be so bad this year, but that the climate in 2008 was so good that we wound up winning seats we probably wouldn't have otherwise.

Well kind of, but how many of the at-risk seats were because of 2008 gains?  Franken and Merkley aren't particularly vulnerable.  Shaheen probably isn't either.  And Warner surely didn't need the 2008 wave to win.  Among the toss up races, we could say Begich and maybe Hagan only won because it was 2008.  The rest were already incumbents back then.

I think only Merkley and Franken were dragged in by the 08 wave. Hagan won because Dole was a shoddy campaigner, Begich won because Stevens was heavily corrupt. And the former two are as you say not really vulnerable.

The big problem is that the country has become more polarised than in 2008.

[windjammer]

Decimals= irrelevant!