MS: Rasmussen: Rs favored either way

[Nichlemn]

Let's put it like this, Childers has about as much chance of winning as the overrated Terri Lynn Land and the extra overrated Scott Brown. Not impossible, but not likely under regular circumstances. Republicans are far more confident about winning blue state seats that Democrats are about winning red states.

Uh, no. Childers needs lightning to strike in several ways to win. All those Republicans need is a mildly good year.

[Nichlemn]

You're being ridiculously hackish to equate MI and MS. Like, okay, some polls in 2008 overestimated Republicans in Michigan, so that just blows out all the other evidence we have? That nearly every election in the past 20+ years supports the idea that MS is substantially more Republican than MI is Democratic? That polls in MI indicate a close race but polls in MS don't? That even in the same year where MI's polls were supposedly crappy, MS polls also underestimated Republican strength? That all of the prognosticators strongly disagree with you?

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Democrats winning strongly in MI Senate seats in recent years is totally consistent with it being more elastic. The past few Senate races have been in Democratic years with strong Democrats and/or weak Republicans, so it's not surprising that Democrats would win big then. In Republican years like 2010, Republicans won big (there wasn't a Senate seat up then, but there's no reason to believe it couldn't have been competitive when Republicans swept the rest of the Midwest that year).

[Nichlemn]

You're being ridiculously hackish to equate MI and MS. Like, okay, some polls in 2008 overestimated Republicans in Michigan, so that just blows out all the other evidence we have? That nearly every election in the past 20+ years supports the idea that MS is substantially more Republican than MI is Democratic? That polls in MI indicate a close race but polls in MS don't? That even in the same year where MI's polls were supposedly crappy, MS polls also underestimated Republican strength? That all of the prognosticators strongly disagree with you?

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Democrats winning strongly in MI Senate seats in recent years is totally consistent with it being more elastic. The past few Senate races have been in Democratic years with strong Democrats and/or weak Republicans, so it's not surprising that Democrats would win big then. In Republican years like 2010, Republicans won big (there wasn't a Senate seat up then, but there's no reason to believe it couldn't have been competitive when Republicans swept the rest of the Midwest that year).

Stop with the name calling, okay? All this calling people hacks because you disagree is unnecessary. The fact that Land hasn't cracked more than 42% in polling is not suggestive of a probable win, judging from the fact that Romney polled the same way in 2012 and went on to lose. Yes, Michigan is less Democratic than Mississippi is Republican, but that doesn't mean that Michigan will automatically elect Land. The people calling it Lean R are being way too optimistic. I'm not even suggesting Childers will win, but some GOPer's here already have Land in the Senate.

When did I suggest Land had a "probable win" or that it was "Lean R?" All I'm disputing is what you said earlier, "Childers has about as much chance of winning as the overrated Terri Lynn Land and the extra overrated Scott Brown", in particular with respect to the former. The races are just not in the same league, and virtually all data and predictions support that.