2010 Reapportionment Projection

[Kevinstat]

I don't like dealing with estimates (I like dealing with the actual census results even if they're not very accurate in some areas), so here are states that would gain or lose seats in Congress (and thus electoral votes) if each state's apportionment (resident plus oversees, but not plus Mormon missionaries as Utah residents learned in 2001) population grew by the exact same percentage from the 2000 to 2010 censuses as from the 1990 to 2000 censuses:

Gainers:
Arizona +2
Colorado +1
Florida +2
Georgia +1
Nevada +2
Oregon +1
Texas +3
Utah +1
Washington +1

Losers
California -1 (although they would not lose any seats or EVs if the Major Fractions method were used instead of the current Equal Proportions method)
Illinois -1
Iowa -1
Louisiana -1
Massachusetts -1
Michigan -1 (but not under Major Fractions)
Missouri -1
New Jersey -1
New York -2
Ohio -2
Pennsylvania -2
(Rhode Island and West Virgina would also lose 1 seat/EV under Major Fractions)

The last five seats in congress/EVs awarded and the first five "near miss" seats are as follows:

Under Equal Proportions:
431 Florida's 27th seat (29th EV)
432 West Virginia's 3rd seat (5th EV)
433 Nevada's 5th seat (7th EV)
434 Texas's 35th seat (37th EV)
435 Minnesota's 8th seat (10th EV)
-----
436 Califonia's 53rd seat (55th EV)
437 New Jersey's 13th seat (15th EV)
438 Michigan's 15th seat (17th EV)
439 Louisiana's 7th seat (9th EV)
440 Illinois's 19th seat (21st EV)

Under Major Fractions:
431 Texas's 35th seat (37th EV)
432 Nevada's 5th seat (7th EV)
433 Minnesota's 8th seat (10th EV)
434 Califonia's 53rd seat (55th EV)
435 Michigan's 15th seat (17th EV)
-----
436 New Jersey's 13th seat (15th EV)
437 Rhode Island's 2nd seat (4th EV)
438 West Virginia's 3rd seat (5th EV)
439 Illinois's 19th seat (21st EV)
440 Louisiana's 7th seat (9th EV)

Some people speculate that my home state of Maine may lose a seat in the reapportionment following the 2010 census, but if each state's apportionment population grew at the same rate between each consecutive census as from 1990 to 2000 (which I know won't come even close to happening, but it can give you a good idea as to what might happen), Maine would not lose a seat until after the 2040 census under the current method or after the 2030 census under the Major Fractions method.  So I think Maine is safe with two seats until at least the 2020 census reapportionment and likely beyond that.  

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[Kevinstat]

Beet,

You mentioned Georgia and Tennessee in regards to Alabama.  You are probably already aware of this, but I just thought I'd let people know that the region a state belongs to has nothing to do with how many seats it gets.  If most states in a region just barely gain their last seat or just miss out on an extra seat, and the total number of seats in the region is a seat or more above or below what it should be, then that's just the way the cookie crumbles.  You may have been saying that since Tennessee and Georgia are growing faster than Alabama, having those growth hot spots nearby may make it less likely for Alabama to grow.  I appreciate your input though.  When I think of Alabama I think of a pretty stagnant place, but the deep south may be changing into an area of rapid growth (look at Georgia), so maybe Alabama will hold onto it's seventh congressional seat for the near future and even gain a seat before it loses one, although it doesn't seem likely now.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[Kevinstat]

Thanks for the clarification, Beet.  I didn't mean to insult your intelligence.  I was concerned that some people might get the wrong idea from what you wrote.  Your explanation is actually one of the possible explanations I had in mind for your earlier comments.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau