2010 Reapportionment Projection (user search)
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Author Topic: 2010 Reapportionment Projection  (Read 15268 times)
Beet
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« on: April 09, 2004, 01:55:33 AM »

The U.S. Census Bureau recently released its estimates for the populations of the 50 states as they stood on July 1, 2003. It's well known that the economy experienced a turning point in 2000, ending a long period of economic prosperity, and this has undoubtedly changed the state-by-state growth patterns from the way they were in the 1990's, so this data can give us an idea of what the state populations may look like in 2010. Furthermore, the next electoral map will be used in 2012, 2016, and 2020, so we'll be living with it for a long time. Here I present a tentative estimate of the population for each state in 2010 based on the state growth rates between 2000-2003. This was done by a simple extrapolation of the growth rate. While there are obvious flaws in this method, it gives us the best estimate available of what the population of the states will be, and thus what the 2010 apportionment will look like. Further, the Census Bureau extrapolates growth rates all the time, for example, when they say that Hispanics will be x% of the population by the year 2050. Certainly this 7-year estimate is far more conservative.

I calculated the average annual growth rate for each state by taking the LN(state pop 2003) - LN(state pop 2000) and dividing by 3. Then I assumed the same growth rate for each state for each of the seven years 2003-2010. Then I multiplied each the percentage of the estimated 2010 national population of each state's estimated 2010 population by 435, and rounded to the nearest whole integer. Adding all of the results plus 103 gave a total of 535. For the 2000 data, the total for the states calculated using this method was 536... two states that were nearest to being rounded up to the next number were bumped up; these states were North Carolina and California. This time, the states that were bumped up were Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. Finally, an image of the probable 2010 apportionment emerged. All states remained the same except these:

Gainers:
.Texas (37, +3)

.Florida (29, +2)
.California (57, +2)

.Nevada (6, +1)
.Utah (6, +1)
.Arizona (11, +1)
.Georgia (16, +1)

Losers:
.Ohio (18, -2)
.New York (29, -2)

.Iowa (6, -1)
.Louisiana (8, -1)
Alabama (8, -1)
.Missouri (10, -1)
.Massachusetts (11, -1)
.Pennsylvania (20, -1)
.Illinois (20, -1)

The raw changes of course reflect absolute rather than percentage growth rates. Nevada was by far the fastest-growing state in the nation percentagewise. It can be argued that Nevada and Utah would be the biggest winners, because they would see their Congressional delegations grow by 33% each, from 3 to 4. Iowa would be the biggest loser percentagewise, losing a fifth of its representation. I have no map as of now.

The states that went for Gore would collectively lose another 4 electoral votes; the 2000 Bush states would gain 4. Though I'm not sure how relevant that would be in 2012.
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Beet
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« Reply #1 on: April 09, 2004, 02:08:44 AM »

Well the numbers could certainly change but this is the only estimate so far based on census data rather than pure speculation. California's population grew an estimated 1.4% annually in 2000-2003 while the national average growth was 1%, and this was during the Silicon Valley crash and the Energy crisis. The other states you mentioned do have higher growth rates except Oregon, but their base population is so small it will take much longer for that to translate into substantive gains in representation.
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Beet
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« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2004, 06:05:48 PM »

opebo for once we agree.

Muon-- it looks like they used the 01-03 data instead of the 00-03 data, but the results were almost exactly identical. The only difference was the switch between AL and MN... MN though is growing at a good rate and I think less likely to lose than AL, which is being passed by by GA and TN.
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Beet
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« Reply #3 on: April 10, 2004, 04:32:41 PM »
« Edited: April 10, 2004, 04:40:50 PM by Beet »

muon,

Yeah and if you use a 6.75 year time frame you can eliminate the 7/1 problem.

Kevin,

I don't know where you got the idea that I think regions affect the apportionment number of seats. There is no official designation of a "region" in the U.S. government that is used across the board. The closest thing to that would be the Federal Appeals Circuit, but as far as I'm aware those boundaries don't extend beyond the court system, so even if they wanted to make the regions as even as possible, they would not have any constitutional definition to go by. And under that system, Tennessee and Alabama are not in the same Circuit. Also, using regions to make decisions like that would probably require an amendment, due to new regions of the 1800s and early 1900s joining the union. But why Alabama is different from Georgia... IMHO, the "Sun Belt" is kind of an oversimplification of growth patterns. For example, Georgia has 5 of the country's 10 fastest-growing counties around the Atlanta suburbs. Its economy is booming at the same rate as Texas and Arizona, and in that sense it belongs to the sun belt, as does Florida and to some extent North Carolina. However, between Georgia and Texas are Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, three very slow growth states. Most of these are experiencing net population outflow. A person living in Alabama wouldn't find it very hard to pick themselves up and move across the state line, where opportunities are far brighter. Although geographically LA, MS and AL are part of the "sun belt" their deep south status does not gurantee them growth... indeed most estimates are that Louisiana will lose one representative in 2010. The question is whether AL falls more into the LA/MS category or the GA/NC/TN category... I would say the former.
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Beet
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« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2005, 07:43:41 PM »

Not surprising for a state where the median home is about to cost $500,000. Who the h*ll can afford to live in that place? No one.
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