the 10 Regions of US Politics

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Ok, I've come up with my own analysis of Tennessee, which I would divide into about seven regions.



Urban - Mixed, trending Democratic

The States four urban counties vary greatly with only Knoxville and Chattanooga sharing mostly common traits.

Memphis - Shelby County is very deeply divided by race with around 85% of whites supporting Republican candidates on at least a local level and at least 90% of blacks supporting Democratic candidates at all levels.  The county remained controlled by Democrats until the arrival of partisan primaries in the early 1990's which gave Republicans the opportunity to control most of the county-wide offices.  However, as the Republican voter base moves from eastern Shelby County into the exurbs of Fayette and Tipton Counties, it gets more and more difficult for Republicans to keep those offices.  On the state and federal level, Shelby County has remained Democratic except during Republican landslides.  It went for Democrats Gore and Bredesen, but Republicans Alexander, Frist,
and Sundquist against inferior opposition.  It is difficult to unify the politics of Shelby County and no one figure has truly united the white and black populations.  On the Democratic side, the Ford family and supporters of Mayor W.W. Herenton duke it out (sometimes literally) for control of Memphis.  However, with the city's major contributions to the state's politics being comprised of Governor Don Sundquist and State Senator John Ford, many Tennesseans of both parties have expressed the wish that Memphis would just "fall off into the damn river already."

Nashville - Nashville has always been the capitol of Tennessee Democratic politics and remains so to this day.  Both whites and blacks are mostly Democrats so the politics tends to be fights among Democratic factions - more Populist Democrats, Blacks, and "Good-Government" business types.  Governor Bredesen was from the latter faction when he was Mayor of Nashville. It is the home of a legacy of white Democrats with last names like Cooper, Briley, and Clement. There are some Republicans in Nashville, almost all of whom live in the Brentwood area on the extreme southern end of the county and identify more with the politics of the Collar counties that surround Nashville.

Knoxville & Chattanooga - These cities are similar in both size and political outlook.  The cities themselves are both slightly Republican and the counties are heavily Republican. Both cities have had strong moderate Republican Mayors who have been in office "forever", Victor Ashe of Knoxville and Bob Corker of Chattanooga.  Ashe recently retired from his office and was replaced by fellow Republican Bill Haslam.  The cities themselves have a slight Democratic trend as Republicans move out into the counties and exurbs - the City of Knoxville voted for Al Gore by a slim margin in 2000.  These areas are the center of Republican politics in the state but have had to share the limelight with the Collar Counties and Memphis suburbs.

Collar Counties and Memphis Exurbs - heavily Republican, trending even more Republican

Collar Counties - The collar counties is Tennessee's newest political region and is basically where all of the Republicans in Nashville were exiled to.  The heart of this region is Williamson County, one of the most Republican counties in the country and where the Democratic party is not even a recognized party.  It is the home of Congressman Marsha Blackburn who defeated four strong opponents from the Memphis suburbs in the '02 Republican primary.  Blackburn was the leader of the fight against a state income tax, a tax which of course would not be popular in the state's most wealthy region.

Memphis Exurbs - Memphis's exurbs are nothing compared to Nashville's suburban Collar counties in terms of wealth or political power and really aren't their own region yet... but they will be soon.  They are still MUCH more rural and the two most powerful Democrats in the State legislature are hiding in political caves in the region. Among these are the state house Speaker Jimmy Naifeh of Tipton County, who was forced to gerrymander most of his district to reach into African-American areas of neighboring Haywood county in order to remain in office.  Even with the gerrymandering, Naifeh only won his seat by a six point margin against a Republican who got in the race with a write-in campaign. This year Republicans have already united behind Dr. Jesse Cannon, an African-American with ties to both Tipton and Haywood counties, to win the seat.  The other one is Lt. Governor John Wilder.  While Naifeh was a staunch Income tax supporter and has made himself the enemy of virtually every Republican and around 30% of Democrats, Governor Wilder has taken a much more accomadating tone and been much more generous to the state's new Republican leaders - and in turn has faced spirited but not over-powering challenges from Republicans.  Once the political careers of these two strong Democrats are over, this area will be almost exclusively Republican.

West - Democratic, trending Republican

This area in the northwestern part of the state is the home of Blue Dog leader Congressman John Tanner.  Most of its local and state legislative offices are still held by Democrats but there is a sense that things are changing in the area.  Last year, young Republican Chris Crider was elected to the state house, toppling an entrenched Democrat who out-spent Crider 20 to 1.  President Bush also won several counties in the area including Tanner's home of Union City.  Tanner is probably safe because of his conservatism but you can bet that this seat will
become competitive the moment he retires.  This area is the only part of the state outside of the urban areas where there is a significant African-American population.

Southwest - Republican

This area of the state, which includes the towns of Henderson, Selmer, Lexington, and Savannah, used to be the only area where Republicans did well outside of East Tennessee.  The area has supported almost every Republican Presidential candidate with the exception of 1912, where the area split between Republican Taft and Progressive Teddy Roosevelt.  However, it has never had the power within the Republican party that East Tennessee has had or that the Collar Counties and suburban Memphis have developed.  It is the home of former Congressman Ed Bryant, who made an unsuccessful bid for the Republican Senate nomination against East Tennessean Lamar Alexander in 2000 - but Bryant's name is certainly in the hat to replace Bill Frist should he decide to retire.

Middle Belt - Democratic

The home of Jack Daniels Whiskey, Al Gore, and the Ku Klux Klan; rural Middle Tennessee is the Democrats' answer to rural East Tennessee.  It provides the Democrats' margin to remain viable in the state. The area has voted heavily for Democrats with the exception of the 1968 election where it went strongly for segregationist George Wallace and most of the counties went for Nixon in the 1972 landslide.  It has since gone heavily for Carter, Clinton, and to a lesser extent Gore.  Republicans have started to break up the Democratic belt across the middle
of the state but were unable to hold on to the fourth congressional district as Democrats redistricted it to include more of southern middle Tennessee to help Congressman Lincoln Davis, a close ally of Al Gore.

East - Republican

East Tennessee has been synonomous with the Republican party since it backed the Union in the Civil War.  Up until the 1970's, it had just enough power to annoy the Democrats but not enough to gain any power statewide or in the legislature.  As areas in the rest of the state began to trend more Republican, East Tennesseans like Howard Baker and Lamar Alexander became not only statewide but national political figures.  Despite the rise of the collar counties around Hashville and suburban Memphis, East Tennessee remains the powerhouse for Republican politics in the state.  

Small Cities - Mixed, trending Republican

Jackson/Madison County is kind of a combination of the West, Southwest, and Memphis Exurban regions.  It is trending Republican.

Clarksville remains mostly Democratic like the Middle Belt region but Montgomery county did support Bush in 2000 and the area is trending Republican.