Do you really think MS would be a Dem pick up...

[Joshgreen]

It depends on how gaffe prone McDaniels really is and how strong Childers really is, and I doubt either one is true. Worst case scenario, McDaniels pulls out with the narrowest of margins against Childers after saying something horrifying.

agreed, Ronnie Musgrove was much more popular than Childers, and he was on the ballot in 2008 when it was a strong Dem turnout year (African American voters being a huge part of the Dem base in MS) and he didn't come close to winning against Wicker, so Childers could break 45% but not 50+1

Umm no.

Ronnie Musgrove got run out of the governor's mansion in 1999. How this makes him more popular than Childers I can't fathom.

[7,052,770]

It depends on how gaffe prone McDaniels really is and how strong Childers really is, and I doubt either one is true. Worst case scenario, McDaniels pulls out with the narrowest of margins against Childers after saying something horrifying.

agreed, Ronnie Musgrove was much more popular than Childers, and he was on the ballot in 2008 when it was a strong Dem turnout year (African American voters being a huge part of the Dem base in MS) and he didn't come close to winning against Wicker, so Childers could break 45% but not 50+1

What?  Childers is a better candidate than Musgrove because he's from rural Northeast Mississippi, where the only whites who will consider voting Democrat live. And McDaniel (insignificant gaffe-prone state senator) is a much worse candidate than seven-term Congressman Roger Wicker.  You are right about 2014 likely being a worse Democratic year nationally than 2008, of course, but I don't think the 2008 race is applicable to this hypothetical-unlikely-to-happen one.

[DrScholl]

It depends on how gaffe prone McDaniels really is and how strong Childers really is, and I doubt either one is true. Worst case scenario, McDaniels pulls out with the narrowest of margins against Childers after saying something horrifying.

agreed, Ronnie Musgrove was much more popular than Childers, and he was on the ballot in 2008 when it was a strong Dem turnout year (African American voters being a huge part of the Dem base in MS) and he didn't come close to winning against Wicker, so Childers could break 45% but not 50+1

But, Wicker is non-offensive and McDaniel has the potential to be offensive.

[Del Tachi]

With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely R

But Cochran will win the primary so who cares.

[Joshgreen]

With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely R

But Cochran will win the primary so who cares.

LOL

I can't wait until you guys are wiping all that egg of your face...

[7,052,770]

With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely R

But Cochran will win the primary so who cares.

LOL

I can't wait until you guys are wiping all that egg of your face...

I realize there hasn't been a poll in months, but no one in Mississippi is expecting McDaniel to win the primary.

The national media is only latching on to Chris McDaniel because he's the only one who has any chance to play into the "Tea Party takes down establishment" narrative.

[Joshgreen]

I realize there hasn't been a poll in months, but no one in Mississippi is expecting McDaniel to win the primary.

...and no one in Indiana expected Lugar to be defeated at this point either. The fact of the matter is that certainty in either direction is foolish given no concrete analytics and only anecdotal speculation.

[Maxwell]

With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely R

But Cochran will win the primary so who cares.

LOL

I can't wait until you guys are wiping all that egg of your face...

I realize there hasn't been a poll in months, but no one in Mississippi is expecting McDaniel to win the primary.

The national media is only latching on to Chris McDaniel because he's the only one who has any chance to play into the "Tea Party takes down establishment" narrative.

But all of the polls that were taken showed Chris McDaniel within range of taking him out?

[7,052,770]

With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely R

But Cochran will win the primary so who cares.

LOL

I can't wait until you guys are wiping all that egg of your face...

I realize there hasn't been a poll in months, but no one in Mississippi is expecting McDaniel to win the primary.

The national media is only latching on to Chris McDaniel because he's the only one who has any chance to play into the "Tea Party takes down establishment" narrative.

But all of the polls that were taken showed Chris McDaniel within range of taking him out?

Those were all taken many months and many gaffes ago...

[Joshgreen]

With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely R

But Cochran will win the primary so who cares.

LOL

I can't wait until you guys are wiping all that egg of your face...

I realize there hasn't been a poll in months, but no one in Mississippi is expecting McDaniel to win the primary.

The national media is only latching on to Chris McDaniel because he's the only one who has any chance to play into the "Tea Party takes down establishment" narrative.

But all of the polls that were taken showed Chris McDaniel within range of taking him out?

Those were all taken many months and many gaffes ago...

So, in other words, you have no factual basis for your speculation. Ok.

[7,052,770]

With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely R

But Cochran will win the primary so who cares.

LOL

I can't wait until you guys are wiping all that egg of your face...

I realize there hasn't been a poll in months, but no one in Mississippi is expecting McDaniel to win the primary.

The national media is only latching on to Chris McDaniel because he's the only one who has any chance to play into the "Tea Party takes down establishment" narrative.

But all of the polls that were taken showed Chris McDaniel within range of taking him out?

Those were all taken many months and many gaffes ago...

So, in other words, you have no factual basis for your speculation. Ok.

WTF are you even trying to accomplish? There's no need to get snippy about this

I've never said that McDaniel has no shot, just that I think he's going to lose. Henever lead in any polls taken months ago, and since then, he's had several small gaffes and one huge one. Mississippi doesn't have a history of being Tea Party stronghold,  and it certainly doesn't have a history of throwing out incumbents. Is any forecaster, in-state or out, predicting a McDaniel win or giving him the lean? No.

Maybe that will all change, but there's no logical basis to expect anything other than a Cochran win as of today. "It happened to Lugar too," is not a convincing argument. There's way more examples of Tea Party challengers losing than winning their primaries.

[Mr. Reactionary]

It's probably as competitive as the seat up in Hawaii. So no.

[Joshgreen]

With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely R

But Cochran will win the primary so who cares.

LOL

I can't wait until you guys are wiping all that egg of your face...

I realize there hasn't been a poll in months, but no one in Mississippi is expecting McDaniel to win the primary.

The national media is only latching on to Chris McDaniel because he's the only one who has any chance to play into the "Tea Party takes down establishment" narrative.

But all of the polls that were taken showed Chris McDaniel within range of taking him out?

Those were all taken many months and many gaffes ago...

So, in other words, you have no factual basis for your speculation. Ok.

WTF are you even trying to accomplish? There's no need to get snippy about this

I've never said that McDaniel has no shot, just that I think he's going to lose. Henever lead in any polls taken months ago, and since then, he's had several small gaffes and one huge one. Mississippi doesn't have a history of being Tea Party stronghold,  and it certainly doesn't have a history of throwing out incumbents. Is any forecaster, in-state or out, predicting a McDaniel win or giving him the lean? No.

Maybe that will all change, but there's no logical basis to expect anything other than a Cochran win as of today. "It happened to Lugar too," is not a convincing argument. There's way more examples of Tea Party challengers losing than winning their primaries.

Calm down, bro. You're just proving my point.

[SWE]

With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely R

But Cochran will win the primary so who cares.

LOL

I can't wait until you guys are wiping all that egg of your face...

I realize there hasn't been a poll in months, but no one in Mississippi is expecting McDaniel to win the primary.

The national media is only latching on to Chris McDaniel because he's the only one who has any chance to play into the "Tea Party takes down establishment" narrative.

But all of the polls that were taken showed Chris McDaniel within range of taking him out?

Those were all taken many months and many gaffes ago...

So, in other words, you have no factual basis for your speculation. Ok.

WTF are you even trying to accomplish? There's no need to get snippy about this

I've never said that McDaniel has no shot, just that I think he's going to lose. Henever lead in any polls taken months ago, and since then, he's had several small gaffes and one huge one. Mississippi doesn't have a history of being Tea Party stronghold,  and it certainly doesn't have a history of throwing out incumbents. Is any forecaster, in-state or out, predicting a McDaniel win or giving him the lean? No.

Maybe that will all change, but there's no logical basis to expect anything other than a Cochran win as of today. "It happened to Lugar too," is not a convincing argument. There's way more examples of Tea Party challengers losing than winning their primaries.

Calm down, bro. You're just proving my point.

You were trying to make a point?

[Joshgreen]

With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely R

But Cochran will win the primary so who cares.

LOL

I can't wait until you guys are wiping all that egg of your face...

I realize there hasn't been a poll in months, but no one in Mississippi is expecting McDaniel to win the primary.

The national media is only latching on to Chris McDaniel because he's the only one who has any chance to play into the "Tea Party takes down establishment" narrative.

But all of the polls that were taken showed Chris McDaniel within range of taking him out?

Those were all taken many months and many gaffes ago...

So, in other words, you have no factual basis for your speculation. Ok.

WTF are you even trying to accomplish? There's no need to get snippy about this

I've never said that McDaniel has no shot, just that I think he's going to lose. Henever lead in any polls taken months ago, and since then, he's had several small gaffes and one huge one. Mississippi doesn't have a history of being Tea Party stronghold,  and it certainly doesn't have a history of throwing out incumbents. Is any forecaster, in-state or out, predicting a McDaniel win or giving him the lean? No.

Maybe that will all change, but there's no logical basis to expect anything other than a Cochran win as of today. "It happened to Lugar too," is not a convincing argument. There's way more examples of Tea Party challengers losing than winning their primaries.

Calm down, bro. You're just proving my point.

You were trying to make a point?

Yes, that y'all are speculating about a race that has no concrete data about it.

[Keystone Phil]

Aaaaaand still a "no."

[Never]

Aaaaaand still a "no."

[7,052,770]

Aaaaaand still a "no."

I don't understand why you're going all out on this. No one is saying it's likely to be a Democratic pickup. There's no bragging rights if you are correct, and an unnecessary embarrassment if you aren't.

[Keystone Phil]

Aaaaaand still a "no."

I don't understand why you're going all out on this. No one is saying it's likely to be a Democratic pickup. There's no bragging rights if you are correct, and an unnecessary embarrassment if you aren't.

Not looking for bragging rights, Harry. Again, get over this idea that I'm "obsessed" with this because of you.

[7,052,770]

Aaaaaand still a "no."

I don't understand why you're going all out on this. No one is saying it's likely to be a Democratic pickup. There's no bragging rights if you are correct, and an unnecessary embarrassment if you aren't.

Not looking for bragging rights, Harry. Again, get over this idea that I'm "obsessed" with this because of you.

I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. I doubt anyone else does either.

[IceSpear]

Doubtful, but with McDaniel, there is an opening.

This.

His probability of pulling off the upset would be slightly higher than Corbett's odds of winning re-election.

I take this back. Childers' odds are now much better than Corbett's odds of winning re-election.

[Keystone Phil]

Aaaaaand still a "no."

I don't understand why you're going all out on this. No one is saying it's likely to be a Democratic pickup. There's no bragging rights if you are correct, and an unnecessary embarrassment if you aren't.

Not looking for bragging rights, Harry. Again, get over this idea that I'm "obsessed" with this because of you.

I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. I doubt anyone else does either.

Oh, yes, Harry. You've never implied or directly said I'm obsessed with you. Haha.

[ElectionsGuy]

Still no.

[GMantis]

Of all Republican states, Mississippi is among the most unlikely for such kind of pick-up. Voting there is simply too racially polarized.

[windjammer]

A dem pick up is definitely a possibility with Mcdaniel, not likely, but a possibility.

Mcdaniel is so terrible, he's even worse than Akin and Mourdock.

If Mcdaniel wins the primaries: lean Rep.